Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (64%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (63%) · Down at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up64¢Down36¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$3.96

Research grade

NeutralDown at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up64%

Down37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$73.47

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$4.3

Up3 traders

Total Value$8.24

Total Shares16

Combined PnL-$0.33

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.16	61% 559-364 (923)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$745	$886.55	+$141.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$747.21	$605.24	-$141.66
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$502.08	$502.06	-$0.02	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$252.08	$254.56	+$2.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$247.5	-$2.5
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 44.4¢	$71.48	$44.66	+$4.49	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$10.66	$12.09	+$1.43	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$8.1	$7.58	-$0.52	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 59¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 54.3¢	$4.93	$4.59	-$0.35	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$4.15	-$1.3	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.63	+$0.02	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.03	-$0.01	51% 2054-1988 (4042)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.16

Record

61%

559-364 (923)

Both legs:

Up$74550¢+$141.5

Down$747.2150¢-$141.66

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.08

Value

$502.06

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$252.0850¢+$2.48

Down$25050¢-$2.5

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$71.48

Value

$44.66

PnL

+$4.49

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.66

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.59

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

soswald1CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.45

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$1.3

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Up 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.1%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.