Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$738.17
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$2.89 | 61% 559-364 (923) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$750 | 52% 3683-3445 (7128) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $523.94 | $529.23 | +$5.29 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $503.48 | $495.01 | -$1.97 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $247.75 | $495.01 | +$248.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250.72 | — | -$250.72 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 55.3¢ | $103.05 | $84.26 | +$12.1 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $35.07 | $58 | +$22.93 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $16.1 | — | -$16.1 | 48% 1426-1527 (2953) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $9.34 | $10.99 | +$1.65 | 46% 3134-3672 (6806) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $6.55 | $5 | -$1.55 | 67% 3766-1879 (5645) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $3.57 | $5.95 | +$2.38 | 47% 1617-1858 (3475) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $3 | +$1.63 | 62% 4407-2657 (7064) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $1.5 | $2.3 | +$0.8 | 51% 1073-1021 (2094) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 36% 1441-2539 (3980) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.16 | — | -$0.16 | 39% 1630-2522 (4152) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $5.15 | — | -$5.15 | 48% 2415-2654 (5069) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 44% 2305-2951 (5256) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$2.89
Record
61%
559-364 (923)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$750
Record
52%
3683-3445 (7128)
Invested
$523.94
Value
$529.23
PnL
+$5.29
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$503.48
Value
$495.01
PnL
-$1.97
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$103.05
Value
$84.26
PnL
+$12.1
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$35.07
Value
$58
PnL
+$22.93
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Invested
$16.1
Value
—
PnL
-$16.1
Record
48%
1426-1527 (2953)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$1.65
Record
46%
3134-3672 (6806)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.55
Record
67%
3766-1879 (5645)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$2.38
Record
47%
1617-1858 (3475)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.63
Record
62%
4407-2657 (7064)
Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.8
Record
51%
1073-1021 (2094)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
36%
1441-2539 (3980)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.16
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
39%
1630-2522 (4152)
Invested
$5.15
Value
—
PnL
-$5.15
Record
48%
2415-2654 (5069)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
44%
2305-2951 (5256)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $529.23
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $84.26
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $58
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
suntori
Down — $10.99
asdaefef
Down — $5
rabadabadoo
Down — $5.95