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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

12

Up 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$88.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL+$22.62

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares563

Combined PnL-$111.29

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$2.33	61% 559-364 (923)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$677.64	$1.4K	+$710.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$678	—	-$712.44
SO soswald1	Upavg 50.7¢	$762.6	$760	+$6.7	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.2¢	$506.2	$498.72	+$7.33	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.2¢	$250.54	$498.72	+$253.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	—	-$246.1
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$235.62	$238	+$2.38	98% 4234-88 (4322)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$80.83	$30	+$6.51	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 73¢	$31.52	$35	+$3.48	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84.2¢	$22.39	$21.13	+$1.81	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$35.04	—	-$35.04	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 22¢	$12.37	—	-$7.51	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 64¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 39¢	$0.73	$1.87	+$1.14	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 17.1¢	$62.57	—	-$62.57	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.77	—	-$0.77	39% 1630-2522 (4152)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$5.4	—	-$5.4	48% 2400-2586 (4986)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.33

Record

61%

559-364 (923)

Both legs:

Up$677.6450¢+$710.11

Down$67850¢-$712.44

Invested

$762.6

Value

$760

PnL

+$6.7

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$506.2

Value

$498.72

PnL

+$7.33

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Up$250.5450.2¢+$253.43

Down$24550¢-$246.1

Invested

$235.62

Value

$238

PnL

+$2.38

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$80.83

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.51

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

Invested

$31.52

Value

$35

PnL

+$3.48

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$22.39

Value

$21.13

PnL

+$1.81

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$35.04

Value

—

PnL

-$35.04

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$12.37

Value

—

PnL

-$7.51

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.6

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

Invested

$0.73

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$1.14

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$62.57

Value

—

PnL

-$62.57

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$0.77

Value

—

PnL

-$0.77

Record

39%

1630-2522 (4152)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

—

PnL

-$5.4

Record

48%

2400-2586 (4986)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf3f4ea5d...a62dd7

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794732000

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Up — $760

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $238

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $30

ply-pm2

Up — $35

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $21.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $5

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