Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 69%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 16 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 552-358 (910) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $735 | -$4.25 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $367.5 | $735 | +$368.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $372.5 | — | -$372.9 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.6 | — | -$499.2 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $198.98 | $201 | +$2.02 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $40.55 | $65 | +$24.45 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.9¢ | $74.04 | — | -$35.51 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $22.02 | $31.92 | +$9.89 | 60% 4018-2726 (6744) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 24.9¢ | $15.5 | — | -$15.5 | 46% 3122-3654 (6776) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 48% 1421-1515 (2936) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $13.77 | $9.01 | +$0.06 | 63% 4381-2627 (7008) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $1.13 | $2.13 | +$1 | 50% 901-901 (1802) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.4¢ | $2.24 | — | -$2.24 | 54% 2562-2153 (4715) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.31 | — | -$0.31 | 52% 1501-1359 (2860) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.33 | — | -$0.33 | 52% 2890-2619 (5509) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 39% 1613-2504 (4117) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $8.45 | — | -$8.45 | 47% 2293-2538 (4831) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $8.2 | — | -$8.2 | 48% 2398-2644 (5042) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
552-358 (910)
Invested
$750
Value
$735
PnL
-$4.25
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Both legs:
Invested
$504.6
Value
—
PnL
-$499.2
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$198.98
Value
$201
PnL
+$2.02
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
Invested
$40.55
Value
$65
PnL
+$24.45
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$74.04
Value
—
PnL
-$35.51
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$22.02
Value
$31.92
PnL
+$9.89
Record
60%
4018-2726 (6744)
Invested
$15.5
Value
—
PnL
-$15.5
Record
46%
3122-3654 (6776)
Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
48%
1421-1515 (2936)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$9.01
PnL
+$0.06
Record
63%
4381-2627 (7008)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$2.13
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
901-901 (1802)
Invested
$2.24
Value
—
PnL
-$2.24
Record
54%
2562-2153 (4715)
Invested
$0.31
Value
—
PnL
-$0.31
Record
52%
1501-1359 (2860)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.33
Value
—
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
2890-2619 (5509)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
39%
1613-2504 (4117)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$8.45
Value
—
PnL
-$8.45
Record
47%
2293-2538 (4831)
Invested
$8.2
Value
—
PnL
-$8.2
Record
48%
2398-2644 (5042)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $201
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $65
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $31.92
suntori
CTRUp — $0
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $9.01