Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 26% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 26%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 19 top traders (26%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 552-358 (910) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$5.25 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $375 | $750 | +$375 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $365 | — | -$369.75 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $507.77 | $495 | +$2.28 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $247.01 | $495 | +$250.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $248.32 | — | -$247.82 | |
 pspspsps5 | Upavg 96.9¢ | $166.91 | $172.3 | +$5.39 | 33% 1155-2309 (3464) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 96.9¢ | $78.97 | $81.53 | +$2.56 | 42% 1920-2608 (4528) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $66 | $66 | -$0 | 39% 1613-2504 (4117) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $54.45 | $55 | +$0.55 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 96.4¢ | $172.68 | $52.47 | -$21.12 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 92.3¢ | $25.5 | $25.5 | -$0.01 | 60% 4018-2726 (6744) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $14.7 | $35.85 | +$21.15 | 48% 1421-1515 (2936) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $16.8 | — | -$16.8 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 46.8¢ | $3.86 | $8.24 | +$4.38 | 48% 2398-2644 (5042) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $6.51 | $7 | +$0.49 | 67% 3730-1865 (5595) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $4.75 | $5.11 | +$0.36 | 65% 2632-1442 (4074) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $5 | +$2.6 | 48% 2388-2566 (4954) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $9.8 | $5 | +$1.25 | 63% 4381-2627 (7008) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $1.44 | $3 | +$1.56 | 44% 2289-2937 (5226) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $2.69 | $2.89 | +$0.2 | 70% 1747-744 (2491) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 15.3¢ | $3.23 | — | -$3.23 | 54% 2562-2153 (4715) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.6¢ | $0.37 | — | -$0.37 | 52% 2890-2619 (5509) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $2 | — | -$2 | 47% 2293-2538 (4831) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
552-358 (910)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$5.25
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.77
Value
$495
PnL
+$2.28
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$166.91
Value
$172.3
PnL
+$5.39
Record
33%
1155-2309 (3464)
Invested
$78.97
Value
$81.53
PnL
+$2.56
Record
42%
1920-2608 (4528)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$66
Value
$66
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
1613-2504 (4117)
Invested
$54.45
Value
$55
PnL
+$0.55
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$172.68
Value
$52.47
PnL
-$21.12
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$0.01
Record
60%
4018-2726 (6744)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$35.85
PnL
+$21.15
Record
48%
1421-1515 (2936)
Invested
$16.8
Value
—
PnL
-$16.8
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
Invested
$3.86
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$4.38
Record
48%
2398-2644 (5042)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.49
Record
67%
3730-1865 (5595)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.36
Record
65%
2632-1442 (4074)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.6
Record
48%
2388-2566 (4954)
Invested
$9.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.25
Record
63%
4381-2627 (7008)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.56
Record
44%
2289-2937 (5226)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.89
PnL
+$0.2
Record
70%
1747-744 (2491)
Invested
$3.23
Value
—
PnL
-$3.23
Record
54%
2562-2153 (4715)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.37
Value
—
PnL
-$0.37
Record
52%
2890-2619 (5509)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
—
PnL
-$2
Record
47%
2293-2538 (4831)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
Up — $172.3
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $81.53
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $66
hoodquant
Up — $55
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $52.47
aaa221
Up — $25.5
PBot-5
Up — $35.85