Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$556.53

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 22 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$736.45

Total Shares736

Combined PnL+$67.11

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares975

Combined PnL-$623.64

Down — 41%Up — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$20.64	61% 552-358 (910)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$661.56	—	-$686.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$667.5	$1.3K	+$706.96
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$720	+$18.05	52% 3670-3435 (7105)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$352.5	—	-$345.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$360	$720	+$363.7
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.7¢	$507.35	$514	+$6.65	98% 4191-88 (4279)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 33.7¢	$77.43	$98.77	+$21.35	54% 2562-2153 (4715)
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.7¢	$41.53	—	-$41.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.3¢	$35.89	$98.77	+$62.88
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$109.89	$111	+$1.11	51% 2039-1965 (4004)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 46.9¢	$33.58	—	-$33.58	47% 1608-1844 (3452)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 37.5¢	$31.99	—	-$31.99	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$14.52	$24	+$13.55	63% 4381-2627 (7008)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$11.04	—	-$11.04	48% 2398-2644 (5042)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$14.17	$20.69	+$6.52	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 20.4¢	$3.11	—	-$3.11	38% 737-1209 (1946)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$17.78	—	-$17.78	48% 2388-2566 (4954)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 59¢	$7.67	$13	+$5.33	58% 5120-3777 (8897)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 35¢	$3.5	—	-$3.5	52% 2890-2619 (5509)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$3.24	—	-$3.24	51% 1062-1015 (2077)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$11.31	$17.9	+$6.59	67% 3730-1865 (5595)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 27¢	$4.05	$15	+$10.95	47% 2293-2538 (4831)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 22¢	$2.97	$13.51	+$10.53	36% 1432-2527 (3959)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.67	—	-$0.67	33% 1155-2309 (3464)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1.47	$7.35	+$5.88	65% 2632-1442 (4074)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2.8¢	$4.28	—	-$4.28	39% 1613-2504 (4117)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 1.7¢	$1.24	—	-$1.24	50% 2671-2654 (5325)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 40.1¢	$10.58	—	-$10.58	44% 2289-2937 (5226)