Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
-$521.28
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.69 | 61% 552-358 (910) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $748.36 | — | -$748.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $747.49 | $1.5K | +$747.44 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $382.61 | $387 | +$4.39 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.5 | $30.23 | +$15.73 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 40.2¢ | $87.79 | — | -$22.7 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $29 | — | -$29 | 51% 1062-1015 (2077) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $9.35 | $10.27 | +$0.92 | 67% 3730-1865 (5595) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.3 | $5.11 | +$2.81 | 63% 4381-2627 (7008) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $4.65 | $5.05 | +$0.4 | 65% 2632-1442 (4074) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4 | $8 | +$4 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $2.96 | $4 | +$1.04 | 52% 2890-2619 (5509) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.46 | $5.02 | +$2.56 | 47% 1608-1844 (3452) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 42% 1920-2608 (4528) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 39% 1613-2504 (4117) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.07 | — | -$0.07 | 54% 2562-2153 (4715) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.69
Record
61%
552-358 (910)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$382.61
Value
$387
PnL
+$4.39
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$30.23
PnL
+$15.73
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$87.79
Value
—
PnL
-$22.7
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Invested
$29
Value
—
PnL
-$29
Record
51%
1062-1015 (2077)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$10.27
PnL
+$0.92
Record
67%
3730-1865 (5595)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$2.81
Record
63%
4381-2627 (7008)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.4
Record
65%
2632-1442 (4074)
Invested
$4
Value
$8
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
$4
PnL
+$1.04
Record
52%
2890-2619 (5509)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$2.56
Record
47%
1608-1844 (3452)
Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
42%
1920-2608 (4528)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
39%
1613-2504 (4117)
Invested
$0.07
Value
—
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
2562-2153 (4715)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $387
soswald1
Down — $30.23
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $10.27
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $5.11
asidjasiodja
Down — $5.05
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $8