Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
16
Up 75%
3 arb excluded
$2.5K
$56.03
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$14.73 | 61% 552-358 (910) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $679.56 | $1.4K | +$707.76 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $678.9 | β | -$693.04 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1Β’ | $506.69 | $503.75 | +$8.89 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50.1Β’ | $252.27 | $503.75 | +$253.35 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.6Β’ | $241.36 | β | -$244.46 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.3Β’ | $285.19 | $290.04 | +$4.85 | 98% 4191-88 (4279) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 64.2Β’ | $82.95 | $85 | +$26.62 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 11.2Β’ | $12.3 | β | -$12.3 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 64.2Β’ | $54.59 | $85 | +$38.92 | |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.9 | β | -$0.9 | 33% 1155-2309 (3464) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 78.7Β’ | $55.91 | $71 | +$15.09 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 66.3Β’ | $32.4 | $45 | +$12.6 | 54% 2562-2153 (4715) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 67.5Β’ | $20.3 | $30.08 | +$9.78 | 52% 3670-3435 (7105) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 75.9Β’ | $22.36 | $24.31 | +$1.95 | 67% 3730-1865 (5595) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 85Β’ | $17 | $20 | +$3 | 48% 2398-2644 (5042) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 72.1Β’ | $20.36 | $25.82 | +$5.46 | 60% 4018-2726 (6744) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 64.7Β’ | $13.69 | $21.17 | +$7.48 | 52% 2890-2619 (5509) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 91Β’ | $22.99 | $15 | +$0.11 | 63% 4381-2627 (7008) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2Β’ | $4.67 | β | -$4.67 | 46% 3122-3654 (6776) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 85Β’ | $8.5 | $10 | +$1.5 | 47% 2293-2538 (4831) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 24Β’ | $1.8 | β | -$1.8 | 48% 2388-2566 (4954) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 51Β’ | $3.19 | $6.25 | +$3.06 | 38% 737-1209 (1946) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 80Β’ | $7.12 | $2 | +$0.82 | 39% 1613-2504 (4117) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.2Β’ | $2.31 | β | -$2.31 | 47% 1608-1844 (3452) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.73
Record
61%
552-358 (910)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.69
Value
$503.75
PnL
+$8.89
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Both legs:
Invested
$285.19
Value
$290.04
PnL
+$4.85
Record
98%
4191-88 (4279)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$82.95
Value
$85
PnL
+$26.62
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
Both legs:
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
β
PnL
-$0.9
Record
33%
1155-2309 (3464)
Invested
$55.91
Value
$71
PnL
+$15.09
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
Invested
$32.4
Value
$45
PnL
+$12.6
Record
54%
2562-2153 (4715)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$30.08
PnL
+$9.78
Record
52%
3670-3435 (7105)
Invested
$22.36
Value
$24.31
PnL
+$1.95
Record
67%
3730-1865 (5595)
Invested
$17
Value
$20
PnL
+$3
Record
48%
2398-2644 (5042)
Invested
$20.36
Value
$25.82
PnL
+$5.46
Record
60%
4018-2726 (6744)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.69
Value
$21.17
PnL
+$7.48
Record
52%
2890-2619 (5509)
Invested
$22.99
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.11
Record
63%
4381-2627 (7008)
Invested
$4.67
Value
β
PnL
-$4.67
Record
46%
3122-3654 (6776)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.5
Record
47%
2293-2538 (4831)
Invested
$1.8
Value
β
PnL
-$1.8
Record
48%
2388-2566 (4954)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$3.06
Record
38%
737-1209 (1946)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$7.12
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.82
Record
39%
1613-2504 (4117)
Invested
$2.31
Value
β
PnL
-$2.31
Record
47%
1608-1844 (3452)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $290.04

Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage β excluded

pspspsps5
CTRDown β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up β $71
ply-pm2
Up β $45
soswald1
Up β $30.08
asdaefef
Up β $24.31
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up β $20