Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 53%
$1.2K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 547-353 (900) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$5.8 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.9¢ | $500.49 | — | -$500.49 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $289.08 | $292 | +$2.92 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 94¢ | $62.96 | $67 | +$4.04 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $56.81 | $59.8 | +$2.99 | 33% 1149-2293 (3442) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 81.5¢ | $34.21 | $42 | +$7.79 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.9¢ | $52.47 | — | -$29.27 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $14.98 | $15 | +$0.02 | 52% 1489-1357 (2846) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $13.77 | $17 | +$3.23 | 50% 3448-3455 (6903) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.7¢ | $3.85 | — | -$3.85 | 54% 2550-2139 (4689) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $2.58 | — | -$2.58 | 58% 5114-3771 (8885) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.1¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 18.3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.8¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 43% 1909-2581 (4490) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $4.6 | — | +$0.1 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
547-353 (900)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$5.8
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$500.49
Value
—
PnL
-$500.49
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$289.08
Value
$292
PnL
+$2.92
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$62.96
Value
$67
PnL
+$4.04
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$56.81
Value
$59.8
PnL
+$2.99
Record
33%
1149-2293 (3442)
Invested
$34.21
Value
$42
PnL
+$7.79
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$52.47
Value
—
PnL
-$29.27
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$14.98
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
1489-1357 (2846)
Invested
$13.77
Value
$17
PnL
+$3.23
Record
50%
3448-3455 (6903)
Invested
$3.85
Value
—
PnL
-$3.85
Record
54%
2550-2139 (4689)
Invested
$2.58
Value
—
PnL
-$2.58
Record
58%
5114-3771 (8885)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
43%
1909-2581 (4490)
Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
+$0.1
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $750
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $292
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $67
pspspsps5
Up — $59.8
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $42
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
0x50f7
Up — $15
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $17