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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Up β€” but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

22

Up 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,234
Combined PnL$-2.0K
Down8 traders
Total Value$1.3K
Total Shares1,302
Combined PnL+$34.67
Up β€” 64%Down β€” 36%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

β€”

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

61%

547-353 (900)

SO
soswald1
Down

Invested

$752.55

Value

$755

PnL

+$4.9

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

β€”

PnL

-$500

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

HO
hoodquant
Down

Invested

$421.61

Value

$427.22

PnL

+$5.61

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$24.49

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$10.95

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Down

Invested

$28.97

Value

$29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

1489-1357 (2846)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$28.77

Value

β€”

PnL

-$28.77

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$39.7

Value

β€”

PnL

-$24.95

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$17.49

Value

β€”

PnL

-$17.49

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$17.96

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.96

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Down

Invested

$16.66

Value

$28

PnL

+$11.34

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

2617-1432 (4049)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.95

Value

β€”

PnL

-$3.95

Record

47%

1598-1836 (3434)

FL
flippingsharksCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.49

Value

β€”

PnL

-$2.49

Record

38%

731-1196 (1927)

HC
Hcrystallash<$100
Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

58%

5114-3771 (8885)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.1

Value

β€”

PnL

-$2.1

Record

48%

2372-2557 (4929)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$6.39

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.39

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.06

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.06

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.86

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.86

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.41

Value

β€”

PnL

-$0.41

Record

33%

1149-2293 (3442)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.78

Value

β€”

PnL

-$2.78

Record

39%

1607-2488 (4095)

SU
suntoriCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$3.72

Value

β€”

PnL

-$3.72

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)