Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
22
Up 64%
$1.3K
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | β | $-1.4K | 61% 547-353 (900) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50Β’ | $752.55 | $755 | +$4.9 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | β | -$500 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7Β’ | $421.61 | $427.22 | +$5.61 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69.1Β’ | $24.49 | $35.44 | +$10.95 | 60% 3996-2713 (6709) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9Β’ | $28.97 | $29 | +$0.03 | 52% 1489-1357 (2846) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.6Β’ | $28.77 | β | -$28.77 | 50% 3448-3455 (6903) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.1Β’ | $39.7 | β | -$24.95 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.6Β’ | $17.49 | β | -$17.49 | 54% 2550-2139 (4689) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 96.8Β’ | $17.96 | $17 | -$0.96 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 59.5Β’ | $16.66 | $28 | +$11.34 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 65% 2617-1432 (4049) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.7Β’ | $3.95 | β | -$3.95 | 47% 1598-1836 (3434) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 39Β’ | $2.49 | β | -$2.49 | 38% 731-1196 (1927) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 45Β’ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 58% 5114-3771 (8885) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 14Β’ | $2.1 | β | -$2.1 | 48% 2372-2557 (4929) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.7Β’ | $6.39 | β | -$1.39 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.4Β’ | $1.06 | β | -$1.06 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.5Β’ | $1.86 | β | -$1.86 | 43% 1909-2581 (4490) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2Β’ | $0.41 | β | -$0.41 | 33% 1149-2293 (3442) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.3Β’ | $2.78 | β | -$2.78 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.5Β’ | $3.72 | β | -$3.72 | 46% 3106-3639 (6745) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
β
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
547-353 (900)
Invested
$752.55
Value
$755
PnL
+$4.9
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$500
Value
β
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$421.61
Value
$427.22
PnL
+$5.61
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$24.49
Value
$35.44
PnL
+$10.95
Record
60%
3996-2713 (6709)
Invested
$28.97
Value
$29
PnL
+$0.03
Record
52%
1489-1357 (2846)
Invested
$28.77
Value
β
PnL
-$28.77
Record
50%
3448-3455 (6903)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$39.7
Value
β
PnL
-$24.95
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$17.49
Value
β
PnL
-$17.49
Record
54%
2550-2139 (4689)
Invested
$17.96
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.96
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$28
PnL
+$11.34
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
65%
2617-1432 (4049)
Invested
$3.95
Value
β
PnL
-$3.95
Record
47%
1598-1836 (3434)
Invested
$2.49
Value
β
PnL
-$2.49
Record
38%
731-1196 (1927)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
58%
5114-3771 (8885)
Invested
$2.1
Value
β
PnL
-$2.1
Record
48%
2372-2557 (4929)
Invested
$6.39
Value
β
PnL
-$1.39
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.06
Value
β
PnL
-$1.06
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$1.86
Value
β
PnL
-$1.86
Record
43%
1909-2581 (4490)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
β
PnL
-$0.41
Record
33%
1149-2293 (3442)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.78
Value
β
PnL
-$2.78
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
Invested
$3.72
Value
β
PnL
-$3.72
Record
46%
3106-3639 (6745)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp β $0
soswald1
Down β $755
ByteBadger92
CTRUp β $0
hoodquant
Down β $427.22
aaa221
Down β $35.44
0x50f7
Down β $29
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp β $0

Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp β $0
ply-pm2
CTRUp β $0
asdaefef
Down β $17