Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 38%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 547-353 (900) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$0.15 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $375 | $750 | +$375 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $374.63 | — | -$374.85 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500.85 | $501.85 | +$3.6 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.85 | $501.85 | +$251 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.4 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $63.6 | $85.5 | +$21.9 | 60% 3996-2713 (6709) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $31.68 | $33 | +$1.32 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $31.82 | $31.63 | -$0.19 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $29.76 | $30 | -$0.29 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $36.36 | $25 | -$6.66 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $21.5 | $50 | +$28.5 | 51% 1057-1008 (2065) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $28.69 | — | -$28.69 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $3.5 | $10 | +$6.5 | 48% 2388-2630 (5018) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $5 | +$3.25 | 48% 2372-2557 (4929) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $5.05 | +$0.15 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $1.62 | $3 | +$1.38 | 44% 2281-2921 (5202) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.4¢ | $5.32 | — | -$5.32 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 9¢ | $2.88 | — | -$2.88 | 47% 1598-1836 (3434) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 16.5¢ | $105.69 | — | -$105.69 | 43% 1909-2581 (4490) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.4¢ | $10.63 | — | +$0.14 | 54% 2550-2139 (4689) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
547-353 (900)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Both legs:
Invested
$500.85
Value
$501.85
PnL
+$3.6
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.6
Value
$85.5
PnL
+$21.9
Record
60%
3996-2713 (6709)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$31.68
Value
$33
PnL
+$1.32
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
Invested
$31.82
Value
$31.63
PnL
-$0.19
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.29
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$36.36
Value
$25
PnL
-$6.66
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$21.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$28.5
Record
51%
1057-1008 (2065)
Invested
$28.69
Value
—
PnL
-$28.69
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.5
Record
48%
2388-2630 (5018)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.25
Record
48%
2372-2557 (4929)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$1.62
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.38
Record
44%
2281-2921 (5202)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.32
Value
—
PnL
-$5.32
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$2.88
Value
—
PnL
-$2.88
Record
47%
1598-1836 (3434)
Invested
$105.69
Value
—
PnL
-$105.69
Record
43%
1909-2581 (4490)
Invested
$10.63
Value
—
PnL
+$0.14
Record
54%
2550-2139 (4689)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $85.5
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $33
asdaefef
Down — $31.63
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $30
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $25
Little-big
Down — $50
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0