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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$823.96

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,045

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Down7 traders

Total Value$313.96

Total Shares314

Combined PnL+$42.71

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	61% 547-353 (900)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	—	-$750	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$508.3	$510	+$3.1	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$258.3	$510	+$251.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.39	—	-$248.6
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$150.01	$151.53	+$1.52	98% 4160-87 (4247)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 93¢	$35.34	$38	+$2.66	39% 1607-2488 (4095)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 77.8¢	$25.47	$32.76	+$7.28	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$29.11	$29.3	+$19.99	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 78¢	$25.75	$33	+$7.25	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$13.28	$16.38	+$3.1	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93¢	$12.09	$13	+$0.91	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$19.57	—	-$19.57	52% 1489-1357 (2846)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 10¢	$1.04	—	-$1.04	50% 2651-2645 (5296)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 15.1¢	$75.82	—	-$75.82	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.96	—	-$1.96	48% 2372-2557 (4929)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.4	—	-$1.4	47% 2283-2527 (4810)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

547-353 (900)

Invested

$750

Value

—

PnL

-$750

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$508.3

Value

$510

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Down$258.350.6¢+$251.7

Up$247.3950¢-$248.6

Invested

$150.01

Value

$151.53

PnL

+$1.52

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$35.34

Value

$38

PnL

+$2.66

Record

39%

1607-2488 (4095)

Invested

$25.47

Value

$32.76

PnL

+$7.28

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$29.11

Value

$29.3

PnL

+$19.99

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$25.75

Value

$33

PnL

+$7.25

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

Invested

$13.28

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$3.1

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

Invested

$12.09

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.91

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

Invested

$19.57

Value

—

PnL

-$19.57

Record

52%

1489-1357 (2846)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

—

PnL

-$1.04

Record

50%

2651-2645 (5296)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$75.82

Value

—

PnL

-$75.82

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

—

PnL

-$1.96

Record

48%

2372-2557 (4929)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

—

PnL

-$1.4

Record

47%

2283-2527 (4810)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb676a366...5b8807

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794727200

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

soswald1

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $151.53

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $38

aaa221

Down — $32.76

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $29.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $33

ply-pm2

Down — $16.38

asdaefef

Down — $13

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