Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 547-353 (900) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $750 | +$0 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $502.15 | $500 | -$2.15 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $252.15 | — | -$252.15 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $207.9 | $210 | +$2.1 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $36.04 | $53.12 | +$17.08 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $50.65 | $30 | +$1.22 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $18.03 | $17 | -$1.03 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 84.6¢ | $10.91 | $11 | +$0.28 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.4¢ | $12.4 | — | -$12.4 | 47% 1598-1836 (3434) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.1¢ | $5.7 | — | -$5.7 | 44% 2281-2921 (5202) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $2.49 | — | -$2.49 | 54% 2550-2139 (4689) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $1.62 | — | -$1.62 | 60% 3996-2713 (6709) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.8¢ | $2.66 | — | -$2.66 | 33% 1149-2293 (3442) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.57 | — | -$0.57 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.38 | — | -$0.38 | 38% 731-1196 (1927) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.2¢ | $2.71 | — | -$2.71 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $0.34 | — | -$0.34 | 48% 2372-2557 (4929) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
547-353 (900)
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Invested
$502.15
Value
$500
PnL
-$2.15
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Both legs:
Invested
$207.9
Value
$210
PnL
+$2.1
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$36.04
Value
$53.12
PnL
+$17.08
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$50.65
Value
$30
PnL
+$1.22
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$18.03
Value
$17
PnL
-$1.03
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.28
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
Invested
$12.4
Value
—
PnL
-$12.4
Record
47%
1598-1836 (3434)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
—
PnL
-$5.7
Record
44%
2281-2921 (5202)
Invested
$2.49
Value
—
PnL
-$2.49
Record
54%
2550-2139 (4689)
Invested
$1.62
Value
—
PnL
-$1.62
Record
60%
3996-2713 (6709)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
—
PnL
-$2.66
Record
33%
1149-2293 (3442)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.57
Value
—
PnL
-$0.57
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$0.38
Value
—
PnL
-$0.38
Record
38%
731-1196 (1927)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
—
PnL
-$2.71
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
Invested
$0.34
Value
—
PnL
-$0.34
Record
48%
2372-2557 (4929)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $750
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $210
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $53.12
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30
asdaefef
Up — $17
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $11
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0