Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 50%
$670.42
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 547-353 (900) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$1.6 | 54% 3914-3284 (7198) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $46.81 | $91.15 | +$44.34 | 51% 2031-1950 (3981) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 93.3¢ | $26.13 | $28 | +$1.87 | 39% 1607-2488 (4095) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $21.5 | — | -$21.5 | 51% 1057-1008 (2065) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 49% 1416-1501 (2917) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $10.9 | $15 | +$4.1 | 54% 2550-2139 (4689) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $10 | +$4.2 | 52% 3660-3421 (7081) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.8¢ | $39.53 | — | -$14 | 51% 2371-2247 (4618) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $4.48 | $6.25 | +$1.77 | 38% 731-1196 (1927) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $6.23 | $7.08 | +$0.85 | 67% 3707-1852 (5559) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $5.85 | $5 | -$0.85 | 62% 4354-2613 (6967) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 98% 4160-87 (4247) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $1.94 | $2.94 | +$1 | 60% 3996-2713 (6709) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.4¢ | $1.48 | — | -$1.48 | 52% 2876-2608 (5484) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.12 | — | -$0.12 | 43% 1909-2581 (4490) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1429-2521 (3950) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $7.68 | — | -$7.68 | 47% 2283-2527 (4810) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 48% 2372-2557 (4929) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.47 | — | -$1.47 | 48% 2388-2630 (5018) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
547-353 (900)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$1.6
Record
54%
3914-3284 (7198)
Invested
$46.81
Value
$91.15
PnL
+$44.34
Record
51%
2031-1950 (3981)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$26.13
Value
$28
PnL
+$1.87
Record
39%
1607-2488 (4095)
Invested
$21.5
Value
—
PnL
-$21.5
Record
51%
1057-1008 (2065)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
49%
1416-1501 (2917)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.1
Record
54%
2550-2139 (4689)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.2
Record
52%
3660-3421 (7081)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$39.53
Value
—
PnL
-$14
Record
51%
2371-2247 (4618)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$6.25
PnL
+$1.77
Record
38%
731-1196 (1927)
Invested
$6.23
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$0.85
Record
67%
3707-1852 (5559)
Invested
$5.85
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.85
Record
62%
4354-2613 (6967)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
98%
4160-87 (4247)
Invested
$1.94
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$1
Record
60%
3996-2713 (6709)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
—
PnL
-$1.48
Record
52%
2876-2608 (5484)
Invested
$0.12
Value
—
PnL
-$0.12
Record
43%
1909-2581 (4490)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1429-2521 (3950)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
—
PnL
-$7.68
Record
47%
2283-2527 (4810)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
48%
2372-2557 (4929)
Invested
$1.47
Value
—
PnL
-$1.47
Record
48%
2388-2630 (5018)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $91.15
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $28
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $15
soswald1
Up — $10
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
flippingsharks
Up — $6.25