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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Up 69%

Total Value

$271

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 16 top traders (69%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,087

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Down5 traders

Total Value$271

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$13.43

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	61% 547-353 (900)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$207.9	$210	+$2.1	98% 4160-87 (4247)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 95¢	$25.65	$27	+$1.35	39% 1607-2488 (4095)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$5.7	—	-$5.7	48% 2388-2630 (5018)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78.5¢	$9.11	$10	+$0.89	67% 3707-1852 (5559)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 76¢	$11.4	$15	+$3.6	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$3.72	—	-$3.72	46% 3106-3639 (6745)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 39¢	$3.51	$9	+$5.49	51% 1057-1008 (2065)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	52% 3660-3421 (7081)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$2.39	—	-$2.39	38% 731-1196 (1927)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.96	—	-$1.96	62% 4354-2613 (6967)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	52% 2876-2608 (5484)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$2.64	—	-$2.64	48% 2372-2557 (4929)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 26.5¢	$9.28	—	-$9.28	51% 2371-2247 (4618)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

61%

547-353 (900)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Invested

$207.9

Value

$210

PnL

+$2.1

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$25.65

Value

$27

PnL

+$1.35

Record

39%

1607-2488 (4095)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

—

PnL

-$5.7

Record

48%

2388-2630 (5018)

Invested

$9.11

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.89

Record

67%

3707-1852 (5559)

Invested

$11.4

Value

$15

PnL

+$3.6

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.06

Value

—

PnL

-$3.06

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

—

PnL

-$3.72

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$9

PnL

+$5.49

Record

51%

1057-1008 (2065)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

3660-3421 (7081)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

—

PnL

-$2.39

Record

38%

731-1196 (1927)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

—

PnL

-$1.96

Record

62%

4354-2613 (6967)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

52%

2876-2608 (5484)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

—

PnL

-$2.64

Record

48%

2372-2557 (4929)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$9.28

Value

—

PnL

-$9.28

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

Smart Money Signal

Up

11 of 16 top traders (69%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7e4d87cb...50eea5

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794725400

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $210

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $27

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $10

ply-pm2

Down — $15

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

suntori

Up — $0

Little-big

Down — $9

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