Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 35%
1 arb excluded
$741.55
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 20 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 540-347 (887) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $505.79 | $495 | -$1.64 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.4 | $495 | +$249.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $251.37 | — | -$250.84 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $55.44 | $56 | +$0.56 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $47.89 | $30 | +$2.56 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 55.6¢ | $19.51 | $23.92 | +$4.41 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.8¢ | $18.73 | — | -$18.73 | 47% 2362-2616 (4978) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $14.65 | $18.93 | +$4.28 | 54% 2526-2126 (4652) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $14.42 | $22.6 | +$8.18 | 47% 1588-1821 (3409) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $9.6 | $15 | +$5.4 | 70% 1728-737 (2465) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $9.42 | $13.5 | +$4.29 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 58% 5103-3764 (8867) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $11 | $20 | +$9 | 60% 3969-2697 (6666) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $6.99 | $18.85 | +$11.86 | 46% 3088-3615 (6703) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.6 | $9.23 | +$5.63 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 52% 2858-2596 (5454) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.12 | $8 | +$4.88 | 47% 2261-2512 (4773) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $2.15 | $5.51 | +$3.36 | 50% 2621-2631 (5252) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 38% 726-1178 (1904) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $9.02 | — | -$9.02 | 48% 2352-2543 (4895) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $6.6 | — | -$6.6 | 44% 2263-2898 (5161) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 52% 3641-3403 (7044) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
540-347 (887)
Invested
$505.79
Value
$495
PnL
-$1.64
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.44
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.56
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$47.89
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.56
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$23.92
PnL
+$4.41
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$18.73
Value
—
PnL
-$18.73
Record
47%
2362-2616 (4978)
Invested
$14.65
Value
$18.93
PnL
+$4.28
Record
54%
2526-2126 (4652)
Invested
$14.42
Value
$22.6
PnL
+$8.18
Record
47%
1588-1821 (3409)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.4
Record
70%
1728-737 (2465)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$4.29
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
58%
5103-3764 (8867)
Invested
$11
Value
$20
PnL
+$9
Record
60%
3969-2697 (6666)
Invested
$6.99
Value
$18.85
PnL
+$11.86
Record
46%
3088-3615 (6703)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$5.63
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
52%
2858-2596 (5454)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$8
PnL
+$4.88
Record
47%
2261-2512 (4773)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$5.51
PnL
+$3.36
Record
50%
2621-2631 (5252)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
38%
726-1178 (1904)
Invested
$9.02
Value
—
PnL
-$9.02
Record
48%
2352-2543 (4895)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.6
Value
—
PnL
-$6.6
Record
44%
2263-2898 (5161)
Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
52%
3641-3403 (7044)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $56
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $23.92
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $18.93
rabadabadoo
Down — $22.6
BoneOhio
Down — $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $13.5