Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 56%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 540-347 (887) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $715.6 | -$3.71 | 52% 3641-3403 (7044) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $357.8 | $715.6 | +$369.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $372.5 | — | -$373.65 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $502.14 | $500 | +$3.45 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $245.76 | — | -$246.55 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.6¢ | $239.52 | $243 | +$3.48 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 72.6¢ | $36.3 | $50 | +$13.7 | 48% 2352-2543 (4895) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 54.3¢ | $35.34 | $35 | -$0.34 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $29.64 | $38 | +$8.36 | 47% 2362-2616 (4978) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 51% 1052-1004 (2056) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $12.98 | $16.69 | +$3.71 | 47% 1588-1821 (3409) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $14.48 | $9.88 | -$4.6 | 54% 2526-2126 (4652) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $14.27 | $7 | -$0.8 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $16.13 | — | -$11.15 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $3.42 | — | -$3.42 | 38% 726-1178 (1904) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 43% 1894-2540 (4434) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 65% 2592-1424 (4016) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.1¢ | $3.82 | — | -$3.82 | 39% 1590-2469 (4059) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.6¢ | $2.52 | — | -$2.52 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.2¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 50% 2621-2631 (5252) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
540-347 (887)
Invested
$750
Value
$715.6
PnL
-$3.71
Record
52%
3641-3403 (7044)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.14
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.45
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Invested
$239.52
Value
$243
PnL
+$3.48
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$36.3
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.7
Record
48%
2352-2543 (4895)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$35.34
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.34
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$29.64
Value
$38
PnL
+$8.36
Record
47%
2362-2616 (4978)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
51%
1052-1004 (2056)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$16.69
PnL
+$3.71
Record
47%
1588-1821 (3409)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$9.88
PnL
-$4.6
Record
54%
2526-2126 (4652)
Invested
$14.27
Value
$7
PnL
-$0.8
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$16.13
Value
—
PnL
-$11.15
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$3.42
Value
—
PnL
-$3.42
Record
38%
726-1178 (1904)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
43%
1894-2540 (4434)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
65%
2592-1424 (4016)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.82
Value
—
PnL
-$3.82
Record
39%
1590-2469 (4059)
Invested
$2.52
Value
—
PnL
-$2.52
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
2621-2631 (5252)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $243
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $35
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $38
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $16.69
ply-pm2
Down — $9.88