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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

15

Up 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$10.83

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$395.1

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$45.97

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$35.14

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$4.11	61% 540-347 (887)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$732.49	$1.5K	+$736.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$734.32	—	-$740.9
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$503.3	$500	-$3.3	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$253.3	—	-$253.3
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$259.23	$262	+$2.77	98% 4120-86 (4206)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$28.23	$34.44	+$6.21	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.9¢	$107.77	$30	-$0.1	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
SO soswald1<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$15.21	$37	+$21.79	52% 3641-3403 (7044)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$11.3	—	-$11.3	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 49¢	$5.17	$8	+$3.21	62% 4316-2591 (6907)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.08	—	-$5.08	49% 1410-1488 (2898)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 98¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	67% 3669-1840 (5509)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 39¢	$3.51	$9	+$5.49	51% 1052-1004 (2056)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$8.49	—	-$8.49	54% 2526-2126 (4652)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 32.7¢	$3.16	$9.66	+$6.5	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 54¢	$2.7	—	-$2.7	52% 2858-2596 (5454)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.4¢	$0.93	—	-$0.93	33% 1139-2277 (3416)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$1.35	—	-$1.35	47% 1588-1821 (3409)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.9¢	$5.3	—	-$5.3	39% 1590-2469 (4059)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$4.11

Record

61%

540-347 (887)

Both legs:

Up$732.4950¢+$736.79

Down$734.3250¢-$740.9

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$503.3

Value

$500

PnL

-$3.3

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Down$253.350.2¢-$253.3

Up$25050¢+$250

Invested

$259.23

Value

$262

PnL

+$2.77

Record

98%

4120-86 (4206)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$28.23

Value

$34.44

PnL

+$6.21

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

Invested

$107.77

Value

$30

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

Invested

$15.21

Value

$37

PnL

+$21.79

Record

52%

3641-3403 (7044)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

—

PnL

-$11.3

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

$8

PnL

+$3.21

Record

62%

4316-2591 (6907)

Invested

$5.08

Value

—

PnL

-$5.08

Record

49%

1410-1488 (2898)

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

67%

3669-1840 (5509)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$9

PnL

+$5.49

Record

51%

1052-1004 (2056)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.49

Value

—

PnL

-$8.49

Record

54%

2526-2126 (4652)

Invested

$3.16

Value

$9.66

PnL

+$6.5

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

—

PnL

-$2.7

Record

52%

2858-2596 (5454)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.93

Value

—

PnL

-$0.93

Record

33%

1139-2277 (3416)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

—

PnL

-$1.35

Record

47%

1588-1821 (3409)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

—

PnL

-$5.3

Record

39%

1590-2469 (4059)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x10459be9...b0ff44

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794723300

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $262

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $34.44

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $30

soswald1

Up — $37

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $8

PBot-5

Down — $0

asdaefef

Up — $5

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