Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
21
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$13
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$7.93 | 61% 540-347 (887) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $505.2 | $490 | -$9.9 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $255.2 | β | -$255.2 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $245 | $490 | +$245.3 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $327.57 | $330.88 | +$3.31 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 32Β’ | $19.69 | $41.09 | +$21.4 | 52% 3641-3403 (7044) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51.5Β’ | $36.69 | $71.29 | +$34.6 | 51% 2012-1937 (3949) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.5Β’ | $14.91 | β | -$14.91 | 54% 2526-2126 (4652) |
![]() Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 85Β’ | $20.83 | $17 | +$1.12 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 82Β’ | $33.46 | $16.66 | -$4.92 | 46% 3088-3615 (6703) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 91Β’ | $15.21 | $15 | -$0.21 | 39% 1590-2469 (4059) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 90Β’ | $11.1 | $10 | -$0.9 | 67% 3669-1840 (5509) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 89Β’ | $7.12 | $8 | +$0.88 | 62% 4316-2591 (6907) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 77Β’ | $6.2 | $5.39 | -$0.81 | 50% 2621-2631 (5252) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 58Β’ | $4.64 | $8 | +$3.36 | 48% 2352-2543 (4895) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 47Β’ | $3.76 | β | -$3.76 | 49% 1410-1488 (2898) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 77Β’ | $3.51 | $2.61 | -$0.9 | 65% 2592-1424 (4016) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 9Β’ | $1.89 | β | -$1.89 | 60% 3969-2697 (6666) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 18Β’ | $1.8 | β | -$1.8 | 47% 2362-2616 (4978) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 13Β’ | $0.78 | β | -$0.78 | 52% 2858-2596 (5454) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 29Β’ | $1.45 | β | -$1.45 | 44% 2263-2898 (5161) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $1.31 | β | -$1.31 | 33% 1139-2277 (3416) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 10.7Β’ | $10.03 | β | -$10.03 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 7Β’ | $0.08 | β | -$0.08 | 43% 1894-2540 (4434) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.93
Record
61%
540-347 (887)
Invested
$505.2
Value
$490
PnL
-$9.9
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Invested
$327.57
Value
$330.88
PnL
+$3.31
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$19.69
Value
$41.09
PnL
+$21.4
Record
52%
3641-3403 (7044)
Invested
$36.69
Value
$71.29
PnL
+$34.6
Record
51%
2012-1937 (3949)
Invested
$14.91
Value
β
PnL
-$14.91
Record
54%
2526-2126 (4652)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$20.83
Value
$17
PnL
+$1.12
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$33.46
Value
$16.66
PnL
-$4.92
Record
46%
3088-3615 (6703)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$15.21
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.21
Record
39%
1590-2469 (4059)
Invested
$11.1
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.9
Record
67%
3669-1840 (5509)
Invested
$7.12
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.88
Record
62%
4316-2591 (6907)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$5.39
PnL
-$0.81
Record
50%
2621-2631 (5252)
Invested
$4.64
Value
$8
PnL
+$3.36
Record
48%
2352-2543 (4895)
Invested
$3.76
Value
β
PnL
-$3.76
Record
49%
1410-1488 (2898)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$0.9
Record
65%
2592-1424 (4016)
Invested
$1.89
Value
β
PnL
-$1.89
Record
60%
3969-2697 (6666)
Invested
$1.8
Value
β
PnL
-$1.8
Record
47%
2362-2616 (4978)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.78
Value
β
PnL
-$0.78
Record
52%
2858-2596 (5454)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
β
PnL
-$1.45
Record
44%
2263-2898 (5161)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
β
PnL
-$1.31
Record
33%
1139-2277 (3416)
Invested
$10.03
Value
β
PnL
-$10.03
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$0.08
Value
β
PnL
-$0.08
Record
43%
1894-2540 (4434)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up β $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $330.88
soswald1
Up β $41.09
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up β $71.29
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0

Polkadot-Frog
Up β $17
suntori
Up β $16.66

OhioRiskManagement
Up β $15
asdaefef
Up β $10