Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
$342.97
Smart Money Signal
21 of 27 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$3 | 61% 533-343 (876) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $715.97 | $1.4K | +$732.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $718.22 | — | -$735.97 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $753.7 | $734.49 | +$5.91 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $524.8 | $505 | +$23.15 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.2¢ | $388.96 | $396.23 | +$7.26 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 60.8¢ | $116.77 | $187.4 | +$70.63 | 33% 1131-2266 (3397) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $111.6 | $144 | +$32.4 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71¢ | $106.5 | $150 | +$43.5 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
BO bosona | Downavg 71¢ | $106.5 | $150 | +$43.5 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
AL almach | Downavg 70¢ | $105 | $150 | +$45 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $89.62 | $89 | -$0.62 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $57.4 | $75 | +$17.6 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 54.2¢ | $34.34 | $38.03 | +$3.69 | 47% 1582-1804 (3386) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $25.91 | $32.69 | +$6.78 | 39% 1577-2453 (4030) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $22.38 | $30 | +$7.62 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $28.35 | $22 | -$4.6 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $11.2 | $15 | +$3.8 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 42.3¢ | $11.15 | $15 | +$3.85 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $4.3 | $9.86 | +$5.56 | 38% 719-1166 (1885) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $13.52 | $8.23 | +$0.47 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $4.35 | $5 | +$0.65 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $5.2 | — | -$5.2 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $4.2 | $5.06 | +$0.86 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $3.85 | — | -$3.11 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 51% 1045-996 (2041) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 3071-3598 (6669) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$3
Record
61%
533-343 (876)
Both legs:
Invested
$753.7
Value
$734.49
PnL
+$5.91
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$524.8
Value
$505
PnL
+$23.15
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$388.96
Value
$396.23
PnL
+$7.26
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
pspspsps5Invested
$116.77
Value
$187.4
PnL
+$70.63
Record
33%
1131-2266 (3397)
Invested
$111.6
Value
$144
PnL
+$32.4
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Invested
$106.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$43.5
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$106.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$43.5
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$105
Value
$150
PnL
+$45
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$89.62
Value
$89
PnL
-$0.62
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$57.4
Value
$75
PnL
+$17.6
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$34.34
Value
$38.03
PnL
+$3.69
Record
47%
1582-1804 (3386)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$25.91
Value
$32.69
PnL
+$6.78
Record
39%
1577-2453 (4030)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$22.38
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.62
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$28.35
Value
$22
PnL
-$4.6
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.8
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Invested
$11.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.85
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$5.56
Record
38%
719-1166 (1885)
Invested
$13.52
Value
$8.23
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.65
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$5.2
Value
—
PnL
-$5.2
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.86
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
Invested
$3.85
Value
—
PnL
-$3.11
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
51%
1045-996 (2041)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
3071-3598 (6669)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $734.49
ByteBadger92
Down — $505
hoodquant
Down — $396.23
pspspsps5
Down — $187.4
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $144
mo-money
Down — $150
bosona
Down — $150
almach
Down — $150
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $89