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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

21

Up 57%

Total Value

$442.85

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 21 top traders (57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,651

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Down9 traders

Total Value$442.85

Total Shares443

Combined PnL+$45.65

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.4K	61% 533-343 (876)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$307.66	$311.13	+$3.47	98% 4086-84 (4170)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$71.75	—	-$71.75	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$21.67	$35.33	+$13.66	52% 3621-3392 (7013)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 37¢	$8.14	$22	+$13.86	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$18.58	$22	+$3.42	54% 2509-2112 (4621)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 11¢	$17.7	—	-$16.91	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 83¢	$12.45	$15	+$2.55	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 45¢	$5.4	$12	+$6.6	58% 5095-3753 (8848)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$10.6	—	-$10.6	48% 2338-2522 (4860)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$10.89	$11	+$0.11	50% 2598-2611 (5209)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78¢	$9.52	$10.38	+$0.86	67% 3650-1820 (5470)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	51% 1045-996 (2041)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 74¢	$3.7	$4	+$1.12	62% 4286-2574 (6860)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.7¢	$5.81	—	-$5.81	39% 1577-2453 (4030)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 1.1¢	$1.58	—	-$1.58	33% 1131-2266 (3397)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 20.7¢	$3.16	—	-$3.16	38% 719-1166 (1885)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	52% 2844-2584 (5428)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.15	—	-$0.15	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$12.95	—	-$12.95	43% 1879-2519 (4398)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

61%

533-343 (876)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Invested

$307.66

Value

$311.13

PnL

+$3.47

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$71.75

Value

—

PnL

-$71.75

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

Invested

$21.67

Value

$35.33

PnL

+$13.66

Record

52%

3621-3392 (7013)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.14

Value

$22

PnL

+$13.86

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

Invested

$18.58

Value

$22

PnL

+$3.42

Record

54%

2509-2112 (4621)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

—

PnL

-$16.91

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.55

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$12

PnL

+$6.6

Record

58%

5095-3753 (8848)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

—

PnL

-$10.6

Record

48%

2338-2522 (4860)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.86

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

51%

1045-996 (2041)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4

PnL

+$1.12

Record

62%

4286-2574 (6860)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

—

PnL

-$5.81

Record

39%

1577-2453 (4030)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.58

Value

—

PnL

-$1.58

Record

33%

1131-2266 (3397)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

—

PnL

-$3.16

Record

38%

719-1166 (1885)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

2844-2584 (5428)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

—

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$12.95

Value

—

PnL

-$12.95

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 21 top traders (57%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x55b75195...7d520a

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794720600

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $311.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $35.33

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $22

ply-pm2

Down — $22

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $15

Hcrystallash

Down — $12

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