Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 65%
$980.93
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 61% 533-343 (876) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$726.06 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $504.16 | $498.16 | +$5.6 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $292.12 | $296 | +$3.88 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $92.77 | $92.86 | +$0.09 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $36.45 | $36 | -$0.45 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 70.6¢ | $33.25 | $33.03 | -$0.21 | 54% 2509-2112 (4621) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $17.85 | — | -$17.85 | 49% 1398-1473 (2871) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $12.69 | $17.88 | +$5.19 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.8¢ | $10.91 | — | -$7.51 | 47% 1582-1804 (3386) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $4.39 | $5 | +$0.61 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 16.5¢ | $19.54 | — | -$19.54 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $3.75 | $2 | +$1.22 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.43 | — | -$1.43 | 33% 1131-2266 (3397) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $2.23 | — | -$2.23 | 38% 719-1166 (1885) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $2.08 | — | -$2.08 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.8¢ | $3.56 | — | -$3.56 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.9¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.4¢ | $4.01 | — | +$0.04 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 39% 1577-2453 (4030) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 28.8¢ | $7.28 | — | -$7.28 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
533-343 (876)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$726.06
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$504.16
Value
$498.16
PnL
+$5.6
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$292.12
Value
$296
PnL
+$3.88
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$92.77
Value
$92.86
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
Invested
$36.45
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.45
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
Invested
$33.25
Value
$33.03
PnL
-$0.21
Record
54%
2509-2112 (4621)
Invested
$17.85
Value
—
PnL
-$17.85
Record
49%
1398-1473 (2871)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$17.88
PnL
+$5.19
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$10.91
Value
—
PnL
-$7.51
Record
47%
1582-1804 (3386)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.39
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.61
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
Invested
$19.54
Value
—
PnL
-$19.54
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$2
PnL
+$1.22
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
—
PnL
-$1.43
Record
33%
1131-2266 (3397)
Invested
$2.23
Value
—
PnL
-$2.23
Record
38%
719-1166 (1885)
Invested
$2.08
Value
—
PnL
-$2.08
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.56
Value
—
PnL
-$3.56
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$4.01
Value
—
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
39%
1577-2453 (4030)
Invested
$7.28
Value
—
PnL
-$7.28
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $498.16
hoodquant
Down — $296
0x50f7
Down — $92.86
asdaefef
Down — $36
ply-pm2
Down — $33.03
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $17.88