Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 87%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
20 of 23 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 533-343 (876) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 97.1¢ | $518.08 | $533.34 | +$15.26 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $516.77 | $490 | +$14.99 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 56.8¢ | $130.27 | $173 | +$42.73 | 54% 2509-2112 (4621) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.8¢ | $98.18 | $173 | +$74.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 19.5¢ | $32.09 | — | -$32.09 | |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $74.75 | $139.1 | +$64.35 | 33% 1131-2266 (3397) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 68¢ | $102 | $150 | +$48 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $67.77 | $135 | +$67.23 | 51% 1998-1928 (3926) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $66.04 | $79 | +$18.84 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $39.05 | $55 | +$15.95 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $35.02 | $46.91 | +$11.89 | 52% 3621-3392 (7013) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $30.86 | $30 | -$0.86 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $27.9 | $29.17 | +$1.27 | 39% 1577-2453 (4030) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.1¢ | $25.93 | $25.89 | -$0.04 | 67% 3650-1820 (5470) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $20.12 | $22.69 | +$2.57 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $26.18 | $22 | -$0.37 | 62% 4286-2574 (6860) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $13.72 | $26 | +$12.28 | 58% 5095-3753 (8848) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $9.41 | $11.91 | +$2.5 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $6.48 | $8.47 | +$1.99 | 52% 2844-2584 (5428) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $5.7 | $6 | +$0.3 | 65% 2580-1409 (3989) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $3.95 | $5 | +$1.05 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $5.19 | $5.18 | -$0.01 | 47% 1582-1804 (3386) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $4.02 | $6 | +$1.98 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.6¢ | $3.99 | — | -$3.99 | 38% 719-1166 (1885) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 49% 1398-1473 (2871) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
533-343 (876)
Invested
$518.08
Value
$533.34
PnL
+$15.26
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$516.77
Value
$490
PnL
+$14.99
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Invested
$130.27
Value
$173
PnL
+$42.73
Record
54%
2509-2112 (4621)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$74.75
Value
$139.1
PnL
+$64.35
Record
33%
1131-2266 (3397)
Invested
$102
Value
$150
PnL
+$48
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
Invested
$67.77
Value
$135
PnL
+$67.23
Record
51%
1998-1928 (3926)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$66.04
Value
$79
PnL
+$18.84
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$39.05
Value
$55
PnL
+$15.95
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$35.02
Value
$46.91
PnL
+$11.89
Record
52%
3621-3392 (7013)
Invested
$30.86
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.86
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$27.9
Value
$29.17
PnL
+$1.27
Record
39%
1577-2453 (4030)
Invested
$25.93
Value
$25.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
67%
3650-1820 (5470)
ohioism<$100Invested
$20.12
Value
$22.69
PnL
+$2.57
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$26.18
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.37
Record
62%
4286-2574 (6860)
Invested
$13.72
Value
$26
PnL
+$12.28
Record
58%
5095-3753 (8848)
Invested
$9.41
Value
$11.91
PnL
+$2.5
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.48
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$1.99
Record
52%
2844-2584 (5428)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.3
Record
65%
2580-1409 (3989)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.05
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$5.19
Value
$5.18
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
1582-1804 (3386)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.98
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
Invested
$3.99
Value
—
PnL
-$3.99
Record
38%
719-1166 (1885)
Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
49%
1398-1473 (2871)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $533.34
ByteBadger92
Down — $490
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
Down — $139.1
mo-money
Down — $150
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $135
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $79
bosona
Down — $55
soswald1
Down — $46.91