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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Up 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$684.82

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,574

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down10 traders

Total Value$186.69

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$3.61

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	61% 533-343 (876)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$503.81	$498.13	-$1.16	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$250.36	$498.13	+$248.84
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 97¢	$42.7	$30	-$12.7	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 98¢	$41.02	$35	-$5.76	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$59.4	$60	+$0.6	98% 4086-84 (4170)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53.5¢	$22.95	—	-$22.95	51% 1998-1928 (3926)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96.3¢	$17.7	$18.37	+$0.67	67% 3650-1820 (5470)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 75¢	$4.79	$5	+$0.21	54% 2509-2112 (4621)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 48¢	$4.8	$10	+$5.2	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$1.28	—	-$1.28	52% 2844-2584 (5428)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 47¢	$3.76	$8	+$4.24	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 87¢	$5.22	$6	+$0.78	48% 2338-2522 (4860)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$5.17	—	-$5.17	58% 5095-3753 (8848)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.35	$5.22	+$2.87	62% 4286-2574 (6860)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 97¢	$8.82	$9.09	+$0.27	65% 2580-1409 (3989)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$0.31	—	-$0.31	52% 1470-1346 (2816)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$0.78	—	-$0.78	43% 1879-2519 (4398)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

533-343 (876)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$503.81

Value

$498.13

PnL

-$1.16

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢-$250

Down$250.3650.3¢+$248.84

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$42.7

Value

$30

PnL

-$12.7

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$41.02

Value

$35

PnL

-$5.76

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

Invested

$59.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.6

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$22.95

Value

—

PnL

-$22.95

Record

51%

1998-1928 (3926)

Invested

$17.7

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$0.67

Record

67%

3650-1820 (5470)

Invested

$4.79

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

2509-2112 (4621)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.2

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

—

PnL

-$1.28

Record

52%

2844-2584 (5428)

Invested

$3.76

Value

$8

PnL

+$4.24

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

2338-2522 (4860)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$5.17

Value

—

PnL

-$5.17

Record

58%

5095-3753 (8848)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$2.87

Record

62%

4286-2574 (6860)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.27

Record

65%

2580-1409 (3989)

Invested

$0.31

Value

—

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

1470-1346 (2816)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.78

Value

—

PnL

-$0.78

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa8ede275...ecfffd

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794718500

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $30

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $35

hoodquant

Down — $60

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $18.37

ply-pm2

Down — $5

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $10

MayorMamdani

Up — $0

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