Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (48%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 48%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$28.96

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 21 top traders (48%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,576

Combined PnL+$10.42

Up11 traders

Total Value$564.64

Total Shares1,531

Combined PnL-$39.38

Down — 48%Up — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.04	61% 526-339 (865)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$984.91	$995.5	+$10.59	98% 4049-84 (4133)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490.45	-$0.35	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 62.6¢	$27.97	$32.92	+$6.27	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 34.1¢	$60.03	$30.32	-$29.71	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 66¢	$62.15	$30.01	-$0.35	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$16.8	$17.68	+$0.88	49% 1381-1459 (2840)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$13.25	$14.69	+$1.44	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 93¢	$23.89	$14.22	-$9.68	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$11.02	$12.68	+$1.66	47% 1576-1791 (3367)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.1	-$0.1	47% 2327-2591 (4918)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76¢	$6.24	$6	-$0.24	67% 3623-1806 (5429)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 70¢	$5.35	$5.71	+$0.53	50% 2579-2590 (5169)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 29¢	$6	$4.66	-$1.35	70% 1711-719 (2430)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$3.84	$4.45	+$0.62	38% 717-1162 (1879)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 76¢	$5.3	$3.98	+$0.15	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$7.71	$3.86	-$3.85	52% 1462-1344 (2806)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.13	+$0.07	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 14.4¢	$3.03	$0.94	-$2.08	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 2.9¢	$1.16	$0.59	-$0.56	52% 2831-2570 (5401)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$3.4	$0.46	-$2.94	39% 1562-2438 (4000)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

61%

526-339 (865)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$984.91

Value

$995.5

PnL

+$10.59

Record

98%

4049-84 (4133)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$490.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$27.97

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$6.27

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$60.03

Value

$30.32

PnL

-$29.71

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$62.15

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$0.35

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

1381-1459 (2840)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$13.25

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$1.44

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$23.89

Value

$14.22

PnL

-$9.68

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$11.02

Value

$12.68

PnL

+$1.66

Record

47%

1576-1791 (3367)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2327-2591 (4918)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$6.24

Value

PnL

-$0.24

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$5.35

Value

$5.71

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

2579-2590 (5169)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$1.35

Record

70%

1711-719 (2430)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$3.84

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.62

Record

38%

717-1162 (1879)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.15

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$3.86

PnL

-$3.85

Record

52%

1462-1344 (2806)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$3.03

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.56

Record

52%

2831-2570 (5401)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$0.46

PnL

-$2.94

Record

39%

1562-2438 (4000)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 21 top traders (48%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.