Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (97%). 18 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

18 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Down (86%) · Down at 3.5¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up97¢Down3¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$113.7

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 3.5¢

-93% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 21 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Up 97%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up97%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,177

Combined PnL+$103.37

Up3 traders

Total Value$47

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$10.33

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$2.23	61% 526-339 (865)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$750	$724.74	-$5.01	52% 3603-3367 (6970)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$522.35	$508.54	+$5.02	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$263.86	$348.46	+$85.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$238.48	$160.08	-$80.18
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$73.5	$99.75	+$26.25	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$73.5	$99.75	+$26.25	51% 1517-1445 (2962)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$73.5	$99.75	+$26.25	52% 1527-1435 (2962)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$63.26	$75.52	+$12.26	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$94.5	$70.65	-$23.85	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$66.45	$38.47	-$27.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$28.05	$32.18	+$4.13
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$40.43	$60.32	+$19.88	33% 1127-2251 (3378)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$30.72	$49.21	+$18.49	51% 1980-1923 (3903)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 31.6¢	$42.79	$37.69	-$5.1	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 51.9¢	$29.55	$27.24	-$2.31	47% 1576-1791 (3367)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 41.5¢	$16.3	$21.42	+$5.12	44% 2227-2869 (5096)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 46¢	$16.1	$17.68	+$1.57	49% 1381-1459 (2840)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$14.95	$16.48	+$1.53	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$29.11	$13.5	-$15.6	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$3.9	$7.98	+$4.08	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$8.45	$7.9	+$3.63	62% 4256-2556 (6812)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$5.8	$6.65	+$0.85	52% 2831-2570 (5401)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 29.7¢	$5.94	$5.7	-$0.24	48% 2317-2509 (4826)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$4.47	$5.12	+$0.66	38% 717-1162 (1879)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 26.3¢	$5.79	$4.07	-$1.72	39% 1562-2438 (4000)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$3.45	$2.53	-$0.92	67% 3623-1806 (5429)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.23

Record

61%

526-339 (865)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$724.74

PnL

-$5.01

Record

52%

3603-3367 (6970)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$522.35

Value

$508.54

PnL

+$5.02

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Down$263.8650.4¢+$85.2

Up$238.4849.9¢-$80.18

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$26.25

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$26.25

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

+$26.25

Record

52%

1527-1435 (2962)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$63.26

Value

$75.52

PnL

+$12.26

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.5

Value

$70.65

PnL

-$23.85

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

Both legs:

Down$66.4549.2¢-$27.98

Up$28.0562.3¢+$4.13

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.43

Value

$60.32

PnL

+$19.88

Record

33%

1127-2251 (3378)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.72

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$18.49

Record

51%

1980-1923 (3903)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.79

Value

$37.69

PnL

-$5.1

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.55

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

47%

1576-1791 (3367)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$5.12

Record

44%

2227-2869 (5096)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$16.1

Value

$17.68

PnL

+$1.57

Record

49%

1381-1459 (2840)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.95

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$1.53

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.11

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$15.6

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$7.98

PnL

+$4.08

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$3.63

Record

62%

4256-2556 (6812)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$0.85

Record

52%

2831-2570 (5401)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.7

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

2317-2509 (4826)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.47

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.66

Record

38%

717-1162 (1879)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.79

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$1.72

Record

39%

1562-2438 (4000)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.92

Record

67%

3623-1806 (5429)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 21 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Up 97%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1982.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

2083.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.