Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Up 56%
1 arb excluded
$844.33
$-2.2K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 25 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 526-339 (865) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$692.89 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $497.42 | -$1.58 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $248.71 | $497.42 | +$248.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $101.91 | $104 | +$2.09 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 20.8¢ | $69.59 | — | -$49.39 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $53.47 | $50.64 | -$2.83 | 54% 2490-2100 (4590) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $44.74 | $45.71 | +$0.97 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $40 | $29 | +$2.46 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 45.6¢ | $22.55 | $27.87 | +$5.32 | 47% 2327-2591 (4918) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $27.45 | — | -$27.45 | 44% 2227-2869 (5096) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $28.06 | $23 | -$4.68 | 39% 1562-2438 (4000) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 49% 1381-1459 (2840) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 65.9¢ | $16.57 | $17.07 | +$0.5 | 50% 2579-2590 (5169) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 38% 717-1162 (1879) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.2¢ | $17.13 | — | +$4.34 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 91.9¢ | $15.94 | $17 | +$1.06 | 52% 2831-2570 (5401) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $15.27 | $12 | -$3.27 | 70% 1711-719 (2430) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $7.84 | — | -$7.84 | 58% 5086-3744 (8830) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $5 | $10.63 | +$5.63 | 36% 1409-2482 (3891) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.46 | — | -$4.46 | 65% 2569-1402 (3971) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $10 | +$4.2 | 51% 1039-991 (2030) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.88 | — | -$2.88 | 43% 1865-2503 (4368) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.6¢ | $11.76 | — | -$6.42 | 47% 1576-1791 (3367) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $17.55 | — | -$17.55 | 47% 2226-2478 (4704) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 18.7¢ | $2.31 | — | -$2.31 | 48% 2317-2509 (4826) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
526-339 (865)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$692.89
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Invested
$500
Value
$497.42
PnL
-$1.58
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Both legs:
Invested
$101.91
Value
$104
PnL
+$2.09
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$69.59
Value
—
PnL
-$49.39
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Invested
$53.47
Value
$50.64
PnL
-$2.83
Record
54%
2490-2100 (4590)
Invested
$44.74
Value
$45.71
PnL
+$0.97
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
Invested
$40
Value
$29
PnL
+$2.46
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
Invested
$22.55
Value
$27.87
PnL
+$5.32
Record
47%
2327-2591 (4918)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$27.45
Value
—
PnL
-$27.45
Record
44%
2227-2869 (5096)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$28.06
Value
$23
PnL
-$4.68
Record
39%
1562-2438 (4000)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
49%
1381-1459 (2840)
Invested
$16.57
Value
$17.07
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
2579-2590 (5169)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
38%
717-1162 (1879)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$17.13
Value
—
PnL
+$4.34
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.94
Value
$17
PnL
+$1.06
Record
52%
2831-2570 (5401)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$15.27
Value
$12
PnL
-$3.27
Record
70%
1711-719 (2430)
Invested
$7.84
Value
—
PnL
-$7.84
Record
58%
5086-3744 (8830)
Invested
$5
Value
$10.63
PnL
+$5.63
Record
36%
1409-2482 (3891)
Invested
$4.46
Value
—
PnL
-$4.46
Record
65%
2569-1402 (3971)
Invested
$5.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.2
Record
51%
1039-991 (2030)
Invested
$2.88
Value
—
PnL
-$2.88
Record
43%
1865-2503 (4368)
Invested
$11.76
Value
—
PnL
-$6.42
Record
47%
1576-1791 (3367)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$17.55
Value
—
PnL
-$17.55
Record
47%
2226-2478 (4704)
Invested
$2.31
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
48%
2317-2509 (4826)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $104
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $50.64
asdaefef
Down — $45.71
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $29
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $27.87
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0