Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
20
Up 30%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$89.16
Smart Money Signal
6 of 20 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0.39 | 61% 526-339 (865) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $502.55 | $500 | +$0.7 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.5Β’ | $247.6 | β | -$249.3 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $311.85 | $315 | +$3.15 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 20.9Β’ | $44.6 | β | -$41 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 71.9Β’ | $21.29 | $16.88 | -$4.41 | 54% 2490-2100 (4590) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.7Β’ | $13.31 | β | -$13.31 | 38% 717-1162 (1879) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.2Β’ | $10.71 | β | -$10.71 | 47% 1576-1791 (3367) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 29Β’ | $7.83 | $27 | +$19.17 | 51% 1039-991 (2030) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.4Β’ | $8.35 | β | -$8.35 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.5Β’ | $8.3 | β | -$8.3 | 48% 2317-2509 (4826) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 42Β’ | $7.85 | $18.69 | +$10.84 | 46% 3003-3542 (6545) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 31Β’ | $4.34 | β | -$4.34 | 47% 2226-2478 (4704) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.5Β’ | $2.15 | β | -$2.15 | 52% 2831-2570 (5401) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 60Β’ | $3.05 | $5.08 | +$2.03 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $2.5 | β | -$2.5 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 17Β’ | $0.41 | β | -$0.41 | 60% 3927-2670 (6597) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 6Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 50% 2579-2590 (5169) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $1.12 | β | -$1.12 | 33% 1127-2251 (3378) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 36% 1409-2482 (3891) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 66.8Β’ | $23.39 | β | -$23.39 | 58% 5086-3744 (8830) |
![]() OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.5Β’ | $3.7 | β | -$3.7 | 39% 1562-2438 (4000) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0.39
Record
61%
526-339 (865)
Invested
$502.55
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.7
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Both legs:
Invested
$311.85
Value
$315
PnL
+$3.15
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$44.6
Value
β
PnL
-$41
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Invested
$21.29
Value
$16.88
PnL
-$4.41
Record
54%
2490-2100 (4590)
Invested
$13.31
Value
β
PnL
-$13.31
Record
38%
717-1162 (1879)
Invested
$10.71
Value
β
PnL
-$10.71
Record
47%
1576-1791 (3367)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$27
PnL
+$19.17
Record
51%
1039-991 (2030)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$8.35
Value
β
PnL
-$8.35
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$8.3
Value
β
PnL
-$8.3
Record
48%
2317-2509 (4826)
Invested
$7.85
Value
$18.69
PnL
+$10.84
Record
46%
3003-3542 (6545)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.34
Value
β
PnL
-$4.34
Record
47%
2226-2478 (4704)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
β
PnL
-$2.15
Record
52%
2831-2570 (5401)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$2.03
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
Invested
$2.5
Value
β
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Invested
$0.41
Value
β
PnL
-$0.41
Record
60%
3927-2670 (6597)
Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
2579-2590 (5169)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
β
PnL
-$1.12
Record
33%
1127-2251 (3378)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1409-2482 (3891)
Invested
$23.39
Value
β
PnL
-$23.39
Record
58%
5086-3744 (8830)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
β
PnL
-$3.7
Record
39%
1562-2438 (4000)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up β $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $315
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
Up β $16.88
flippingsharks
CTRDown β $0
rabadabadoo
CTRDown β $0
Little-big
Up β $27

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0