Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 78%
4 arb excluded
$3.8K
$324.32
Smart Money Signal
18 of 23 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$14.75 | 61% 526-339 (865) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $699.37 | $1.4K | +$716.82 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $691.22 | — | -$702.07 | |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $755.33 | $729 | +$14.27 | 52% 3603-3367 (6970) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.2¢ | $513.19 | $507.42 | +$20.94 | 54% 3808-3199 (7007) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $249.67 | $507.42 | +$263.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $245.04 | — | -$242.5 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $260.67 | $264.73 | +$4.06 | 98% 4049-84 (4133) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $110.71 | $132.25 | +$21.54 | 54% 2490-2100 (4590) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $65.59 | $132.25 | +$66.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.3¢ | $45.13 | — | -$45.13 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 30¢ | $45 | $150 | +$105 | 51% 1517-1445 (2962) |
BO bosona | Downavg 31¢ | $46.5 | $150 | +$103.5 | 51% 4768-4559 (9327) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $56.42 | $86.64 | +$30.21 | 50% 3372-3320 (6692) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 40¢ | $34.63 | $86.64 | +$52.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.9¢ | $21.8 | — | -$21.8 | |
AL almach | Downavg 30¢ | $35.04 | $116.79 | +$81.75 | 52% 1527-1435 (2962) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $60.29 | $31 | +$30.2 | 51% 2323-2193 (4516) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 64.7¢ | $28.77 | $35 | +$10.19 | 48% 2317-2509 (4826) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $36.5 | $50 | +$13.5 | 70% 1711-719 (2430) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $23.29 | $27.76 | +$4.48 | 47% 1576-1791 (3367) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $22.44 | $25.13 | +$2.72 | 47% 2226-2478 (4704) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.3¢ | $26.28 | — | -$26.28 | 51% 1039-991 (2030) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $19.34 | $18.25 | -$0.18 | 44% 2227-2869 (5096) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $20.12 | $18.08 | +$0.63 | 62% 4256-2556 (6812) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $10.26 | — | -$10.26 | 33% 1127-2251 (3378) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $11.61 | $16.2 | +$4.59 | 39% 1562-2438 (4000) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $7.97 | $11.67 | +$3.7 | 47% 2327-2591 (4918) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $9.13 | $11.13 | +$2 | 67% 3623-1806 (5429) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $16.8 | — | -$16.8 | 49% 1381-1459 (2840) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $8.79 | — | -$8.79 | 50% 2579-2590 (5169) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $2.48 | $8 | +$5.52 | 38% 717-1162 (1879) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 51% 1980-1923 (3903) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.75
Record
61%
526-339 (865)
Both legs:
Invested
$755.33
Value
$729
PnL
+$14.27
Record
52%
3603-3367 (6970)
Invested
$513.19
Value
$507.42
PnL
+$20.94
Record
54%
3808-3199 (7007)
Both legs:
Invested
$260.67
Value
$264.73
PnL
+$4.06
Record
98%
4049-84 (4133)
Invested
$110.71
Value
$132.25
PnL
+$21.54
Record
54%
2490-2100 (4590)
Both legs:
Invested
$45
Value
$150
PnL
+$105
Record
51%
1517-1445 (2962)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$150
PnL
+$103.5
Record
51%
4768-4559 (9327)
Invested
$56.42
Value
$86.64
PnL
+$30.21
Record
50%
3372-3320 (6692)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.04
Value
$116.79
PnL
+$81.75
Record
52%
1527-1435 (2962)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$60.29
Value
$31
PnL
+$30.2
Record
51%
2323-2193 (4516)
Invested
$28.77
Value
$35
PnL
+$10.19
Record
48%
2317-2509 (4826)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$36.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$13.5
Record
70%
1711-719 (2430)
Invested
$23.29
Value
$27.76
PnL
+$4.48
Record
47%
1576-1791 (3367)
ohioism<$100Invested
$22.44
Value
$25.13
PnL
+$2.72
Record
47%
2226-2478 (4704)
Invested
$26.28
Value
—
PnL
-$26.28
Record
51%
1039-991 (2030)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$18.25
PnL
-$0.18
Record
44%
2227-2869 (5096)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$18.08
PnL
+$0.63
Record
62%
4256-2556 (6812)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$10.26
Value
—
PnL
-$10.26
Record
33%
1127-2251 (3378)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$11.61
Value
$16.2
PnL
+$4.59
Record
39%
1562-2438 (4000)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$11.67
PnL
+$3.7
Record
47%
2327-2591 (4918)
Invested
$9.13
Value
$11.13
PnL
+$2
Record
67%
3623-1806 (5429)
Invested
$16.8
Value
—
PnL
-$16.8
Record
49%
1381-1459 (2840)
Invested
$8.79
Value
—
PnL
-$8.79
Record
50%
2579-2590 (5169)
Invested
$2.48
Value
$8
PnL
+$5.52
Record
38%
717-1162 (1879)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
1980-1923 (3903)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Down — $729
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $264.73
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $150
bosona
Down — $150
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
Down — $116.79
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $31