Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Up (65%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$2.61

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,898

Combined PnL+$3.35

Down6 traders

Total Value$744.38

Total Shares1,718

Combined PnL-$5.96

Up — 65%Down — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$3.38	61% 518-332 (850)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$822.69	$826.85	+$4.15	98% 3999-84 (4083)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 50¢	$750	$723.36	-$1.26	52% 3571-3339 (6910)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 95.3¢	$27.68	$27.87	+$1.07	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 53¢	$18.55	$17.68	-$0.88	49% 1355-1438 (2793)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 91¢	$13.65	$13.73	+$0.08	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$7.88	$11.82	+$3.94	52% 1448-1342 (2790)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 87.3¢	$14.05	$10.41	+$0.87	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 85¢	$8.9	$9.99	+$1.98	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 9.2¢	$10.99	$7.73	-$3.26	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$7.92	$7.32	-$0.6	65% 2545-1392 (3937)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 97¢	$4.95	$5.08	+$0.13	50% 2549-2566 (5115)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.53	-$0.08	48% 2280-2489 (4769)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 12.3¢	$1.55	$0.82	-$0.73	33% 1116-2237 (3353)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$0.9	$0.45	-$0.45	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 10.4¢	$4.41	$0.21	-$4.2	39% 1545-2411 (3956)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$3.38

Record

61%

518-332 (850)

hoodquant

Invested

$822.69

Value

$826.85

PnL

+$4.15

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

soswald1CTR

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$723.36

PnL

-$1.26

Record

52%

3571-3339 (6910)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$27.68

Value

$27.87

PnL

+$1.07

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$18.55

Value

$17.68

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

1355-1438 (2793)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$13.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.88

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$3.94

Record

52%

1448-1342 (2790)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$14.05

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$0.87

Record

63%

4221-2527 (6748)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$1.98

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.99

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$3.26

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$7.92

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$0.6

Record

65%

2545-1392 (3937)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

2549-2566 (5115)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2280-2489 (4769)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.73

Record

33%

1116-2237 (3353)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

52%

2809-2555 (5364)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.41

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$4.2

Record

39%

1545-2411 (3956)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.