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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$899.34

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Down7 traders

Total Value$399.34

Total Shares399

Combined PnL+$13.84

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	61% 518-332 (850)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500.73	$500	+$0.76	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$248.24	—	-$249.24
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$296.21	$299.76	+$3.55	98% 3999-84 (4083)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 28.8¢	$76.28	—	-$25.22	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$25.91	$20.76	-$5.15	52% 3571-3339 (6910)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$30.15	—	-$27.93	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 72¢	$12.96	$18	+$5.04	58% 5072-3729 (8801)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 79¢	$17.38	$22	+$4.62	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 88¢	$13.92	$15.82	+$1.9	47% 2305-2557 (4862)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 87¢	$11.31	$13	+$1.69	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 78¢	$7.8	$10	+$2.2	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 43.4¢	$11.43	—	-$9.36	47% 1558-1782 (3340)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 17.3¢	$3.79	—	-$3.79	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 21.1¢	$15.91	—	-$4.31	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1405-2441 (3846)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 30.5¢	$7.7	—	-$4.25	67% 3590-1785 (5375)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

518-332 (850)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500.73

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.76

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$248.2449.9¢-$249.24

Invested

$296.21

Value

$299.76

PnL

+$3.55

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$76.28

Value

—

PnL

-$25.22

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

Invested

$25.91

Value

$20.76

PnL

-$5.15

Record

52%

3571-3339 (6910)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$30.15

Value

—

PnL

-$27.93

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$12.96

Value

$18

PnL

+$5.04

Record

58%

5072-3729 (8801)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$22

PnL

+$4.62

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$13.92

Value

$15.82

PnL

+$1.9

Record

47%

2305-2557 (4862)

Invested

$11.31

Value

$13

PnL

+$1.69

Record

47%

2198-2452 (4650)

Invested

$7.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.2

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$11.43

Value

—

PnL

-$9.36

Record

47%

1558-1782 (3340)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

—

PnL

-$3.79

Record

52%

2809-2555 (5364)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$15.91

Value

—

PnL

-$4.31

Record

63%

4221-2527 (6748)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1405-2441 (3846)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

—

PnL

-$4.25

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x752a5b80...86a8aa

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794713100

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $299.76

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

soswald1

Down — $20.76

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

Hcrystallash

Down — $18

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $22

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15.82

ohioism

Down — $13

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