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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,602

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Up9 traders

Total Value$656.61

Total Shares657

Combined PnL+$43.4

Down — 44%Up — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	61% 518-332 (850)
SO soswald1CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$751.65	—	-$666.9	52% 3571-3339 (6910)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.1¢	$546.53	$556.91	+$10.38	98% 3999-84 (4083)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$503.1	$505	+$4.15	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$253.1	$505	+$251.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	—	-$247.75
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$35.01	—	-$35.01	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$35	—	-$35	51% 1023-979 (2002)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 62¢	$18.6	$30	+$11.4	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 84.2¢	$20.26	$15.06	+$3.66	63% 4221-2527 (6748)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$12.02	$16.22	+$4.2	52% 2809-2555 (5364)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 45¢	$4.95	$11	+$6.05	44% 2198-2839 (5037)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 82¢	$8.66	$10.56	+$1.9	60% 3891-2648 (6539)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 15.7¢	$32.72	—	-$19.91	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$19.21	$6.42	+$1.76	52% 2308-2166 (4474)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 45¢	$2.25	$5	+$2.75	48% 2280-2489 (4769)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$4.15	$5.45	+$1.3	67% 3590-1785 (5375)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$1.42	—	-$1.42	33% 1116-2237 (3353)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.7¢	$3.96	—	-$3.96	39% 1545-2411 (3956)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

518-332 (850)

Invested

$751.65

Value

—

PnL

-$666.9

Record

52%

3571-3339 (6910)

Invested

$546.53

Value

$556.91

PnL

+$10.38

Record

98%

3999-84 (4083)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$503.1

Value

$505

PnL

+$4.15

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Up$253.150.1¢+$251.9

Down$247.550¢-$247.75

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$35.01

Value

—

PnL

-$35.01

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$35

Value

—

PnL

-$35

Record

51%

1023-979 (2002)

Invested

$18.6

Value

$30

PnL

+$11.4

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$20.26

Value

$15.06

PnL

+$3.66

Record

63%

4221-2527 (6748)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$12.02

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$4.2

Record

52%

2809-2555 (5364)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$11

PnL

+$6.05

Record

44%

2198-2839 (5037)

Invested

$8.66

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$1.9

Record

60%

3891-2648 (6539)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$32.72

Value

—

PnL

-$19.91

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$19.21

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$1.76

Record

52%

2308-2166 (4474)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

2280-2489 (4769)

Invested

$4.15

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$1.3

Record

67%

3590-1785 (5375)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

—

PnL

-$1.42

Record

33%

1116-2237 (3353)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

—

PnL

-$3.96

Record

39%

1545-2411 (3956)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd4cc8f5b...984912

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794712500

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

soswald1

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $556.91

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Little-big

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $30

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $15.06

MayorMamdani

Up — $16.22

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $11

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