Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 47%
3 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$204.81
Smart Money Signal
8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$1.8 | 61% 518-332 (850) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $649.21 | — | -$635.98 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $648.47 | $1.3K | +$634.18 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $720 | +$44.13 | 52% 3571-3339 (6910) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $720 | +$361.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $322.23 | — | -$317.42 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.4 | $498 | -$4.28 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $253.4 | — | -$253.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249 | $498 | +$249.12 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 40.3¢ | $100.36 | — | -$82.76 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $149.85 | $151.36 | +$1.51 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 61.5¢ | $50 | — | -$50 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $41.13 | — | -$41.13 | 47% 2198-2452 (4650) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $14.1 | $29.95 | +$15.85 | 48% 2280-2489 (4769) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $23.01 | $46.16 | +$23.15 | 70% 1689-707 (2396) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $22.27 | — | -$22.27 | 47% 1558-1782 (3340) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $31.11 | — | -$25.57 | 63% 4221-2527 (6748) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $40.09 | — | -$27.42 | 60% 3891-2648 (6539) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $17.78 | — | -$17.78 | 54% 2461-2088 (4549) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $8.39 | $13 | +$10.37 | 44% 2198-2839 (5037) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 23.7¢ | $7.27 | $20.35 | +$13.08 | 39% 1545-2411 (3956) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $6.9 | $10 | +$5.85 | 47% 2305-2557 (4862) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.3¢ | $14.45 | $11.19 | -$3.26 | 67% 3590-1785 (5375) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $4.92 | — | -$4.92 | 49% 1355-1438 (2793) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $6.72 | $12 | +$5.28 | 58% 5072-3729 (8801) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $4.79 | — | -$4.79 | 52% 2809-2555 (5364) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$1.8
Record
61%
518-332 (850)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$720
PnL
+$44.13
Record
52%
3571-3339 (6910)
Both legs:
Invested
$504.4
Value
$498
PnL
-$4.28
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.36
Value
—
PnL
-$82.76
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$149.85
Value
$151.36
PnL
+$1.51
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
—
PnL
-$50
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$41.13
Value
—
PnL
-$41.13
Record
47%
2198-2452 (4650)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$29.95
PnL
+$15.85
Record
48%
2280-2489 (4769)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.01
Value
$46.16
PnL
+$23.15
Record
70%
1689-707 (2396)
Invested
$22.27
Value
—
PnL
-$22.27
Record
47%
1558-1782 (3340)
Invested
$31.11
Value
—
PnL
-$25.57
Record
63%
4221-2527 (6748)
Invested
$40.09
Value
—
PnL
-$27.42
Record
60%
3891-2648 (6539)
Invested
$17.78
Value
—
PnL
-$17.78
Record
54%
2461-2088 (4549)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$8.39
Value
$13
PnL
+$10.37
Record
44%
2198-2839 (5037)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$20.35
PnL
+$13.08
Record
39%
1545-2411 (3956)
Invested
$6.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.85
Record
47%
2305-2557 (4862)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$11.19
PnL
-$3.26
Record
67%
3590-1785 (5375)
Invested
$4.92
Value
—
PnL
-$4.92
Record
49%
1355-1438 (2793)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.28
Record
58%
5072-3729 (8801)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
—
PnL
-$4.79
Record
52%
2809-2555 (5364)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $151.36
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $29.95
BoneOhio
Down — $46.16
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0