Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
11 of 22 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 512-328 (840) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $569.66 | $575.41 | +$5.75 | 52% 1439-1341 (2780) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.5 | $490 | -$6.25 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $251.66 | — | -$251.65 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 97.6¢ | $87.83 | $90 | +$2.17 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $73.73 | $74.47 | +$0.74 | 51% 1968-1903 (3871) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $60.18 | $40 | +$9.38 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71.4¢ | $34.47 | $33.76 | -$0.71 | 54% 2440-2083 (4523) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 69.1¢ | $21.64 | $27.06 | +$7.84 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 32.1¢ | $43.51 | — | -$43.51 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $19.86 | — | -$19.86 | 48% 1343-1431 (2774) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $22.5 | — | -$22.5 | 70% 1672-705 (2377) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $25.95 | — | -$25.95 | 47% 2283-2545 (4828) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $17.41 | $21.88 | +$4.47 | 59% 3865-2632 (6497) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $16.7 | — | -$16.56 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $36.02 | $5 | -$3.22 | 63% 4195-2511 (6706) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $4.8 | $5 | +$0.2 | 52% 2790-2541 (5331) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.29 | $10.17 | +$4.88 | 38% 696-1135 (1831) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.7¢ | $11.76 | — | -$9.61 | 47% 1551-1772 (3323) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $5 | +$2.65 | 39% 1532-2394 (3926) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 65% 2523-1384 (3907) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.9¢ | $13.25 | — | -$13.25 | 44% 2183-2822 (5005) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.7¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 50% 2527-2554 (5081) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
512-328 (840)
Invested
$569.66
Value
$575.41
PnL
+$5.75
Record
52%
1439-1341 (2780)
Invested
$504.5
Value
$490
PnL
-$6.25
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.83
Value
$90
PnL
+$2.17
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$73.73
Value
$74.47
PnL
+$0.74
Record
51%
1968-1903 (3871)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$60.18
Value
$40
PnL
+$9.38
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$34.47
Value
$33.76
PnL
-$0.71
Record
54%
2440-2083 (4523)
Invested
$21.64
Value
$27.06
PnL
+$7.84
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Invested
$43.51
Value
—
PnL
-$43.51
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$19.86
Value
—
PnL
-$19.86
Record
48%
1343-1431 (2774)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
—
PnL
-$22.5
Record
70%
1672-705 (2377)
Invested
$25.95
Value
—
PnL
-$25.95
Record
47%
2283-2545 (4828)
Invested
$17.41
Value
$21.88
PnL
+$4.47
Record
59%
3865-2632 (6497)
Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
Invested
$16.7
Value
—
PnL
-$16.56
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$36.02
Value
$5
PnL
-$3.22
Record
63%
4195-2511 (6706)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.2
Record
52%
2790-2541 (5331)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$10.17
PnL
+$4.88
Record
38%
696-1135 (1831)
Invested
$11.76
Value
—
PnL
-$9.61
Record
47%
1551-1772 (3323)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
39%
1532-2394 (3926)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
65%
2523-1384 (3907)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.25
Value
—
PnL
-$13.25
Record
44%
2183-2822 (5005)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
50%
2527-2554 (5081)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $575.41
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $90
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $74.47
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $40
ply-pm2
Down — $33.76
soswald1
Down — $27.06
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0