Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
28
Up 46%
2 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$737.82
Smart Money Signal
13 of 28 top traders (46%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | +$4.22 | 61% 512-328 (840) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $611.62 | $1.2K | +$570.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $616.2 | — | -$566.68 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 72.8¢ | $828.75 | — | -$823.71 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $755.65 | $735 | +$53.54 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $507.76 | $489.99 | +$6.12 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $243.23 | $489.99 | +$244.79 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $245.08 | — | -$238.68 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 12.7¢ | $21.4 | $168 | +$146.6 | 44% 2183-2822 (5005) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 84.5¢ | $125.38 | — | -$124.48 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $76.47 | — | -$47.87 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.1¢ | $72.24 | — | -$72.24 | 51% 1013-972 (1985) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $96.16 | $65.99 | +$31.44 | 54% 2440-2083 (4523) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 51.5¢ | $28.3 | $55 | +$26.7 | 48% 1343-1431 (2774) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $38.38 | — | -$35.62 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.1¢ | $20.8 | — | -$20.8 | 50% 2527-2554 (5081) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $36.57 | $36.94 | +$0.37 | 70% 1672-705 (2377) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 56.3¢ | $24.96 | — | -$24.96 | 47% 1551-1772 (3323) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.1¢ | $14.72 | — | -$14.72 | 65% 2523-1384 (3907) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $18.6 | $20.21 | +$1.61 | 50% 1618-1648 (3266) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $15.7 | — | -$15.7 | 47% 2283-2545 (4828) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $17.43 | $25.91 | +$8.48 | 51% 1492-1421 (2913) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 9.4¢ | $28.34 | $18.27 | +$8.62 | 63% 4195-2511 (6706) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $11.76 | — | -$11.76 | 52% 2790-2541 (5331) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $7 | $20 | +$13 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.84 | $5.19 | +$1.35 | 51% 1487-1429 (2916) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $4.38 | — | -$4.38 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 22.3¢ | $13.82 | $62.01 | +$48.19 | 39% 1532-2394 (3926) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 14.5¢ | $12.36 | $85.38 | +$73.02 | 33% 1106-2226 (3332) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$4.22
Record
61%
512-328 (840)
Both legs:
Invested
$828.75
Value
—
PnL
-$823.71
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Invested
$755.65
Value
$735
PnL
+$53.54
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
Invested
$507.76
Value
$489.99
PnL
+$6.12
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$21.4
Value
$168
PnL
+$146.6
Record
44%
2183-2822 (5005)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$125.38
Value
—
PnL
-$124.48
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$76.47
Value
—
PnL
-$47.87
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Invested
$72.24
Value
—
PnL
-$72.24
Record
51%
1013-972 (1985)
Invested
$96.16
Value
$65.99
PnL
+$31.44
Record
54%
2440-2083 (4523)
Invested
$28.3
Value
$55
PnL
+$26.7
Record
48%
1343-1431 (2774)
Invested
$38.38
Value
—
PnL
-$35.62
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$20.8
Value
—
PnL
-$20.8
Record
50%
2527-2554 (5081)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$36.57
Value
$36.94
PnL
+$0.37
Record
70%
1672-705 (2377)
Invested
$24.96
Value
—
PnL
-$24.96
Record
47%
1551-1772 (3323)
Invested
$14.72
Value
—
PnL
-$14.72
Record
65%
2523-1384 (3907)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$18.6
Value
$20.21
PnL
+$1.61
Record
50%
1618-1648 (3266)
Invested
$15.7
Value
—
PnL
-$15.7
Record
47%
2283-2545 (4828)
Invested
$17.43
Value
$25.91
PnL
+$8.48
Record
51%
1492-1421 (2913)
Invested
$28.34
Value
$18.27
PnL
+$8.62
Record
63%
4195-2511 (6706)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$11.76
Value
—
PnL
-$11.76
Record
52%
2790-2541 (5331)
Invested
$7
Value
$20
PnL
+$13
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$1.35
Record
51%
1487-1429 (2916)
Invested
$4.38
Value
—
PnL
-$4.38
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$13.82
Value
$62.01
PnL
+$48.19
Record
39%
1532-2394 (3926)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$12.36
Value
$85.38
PnL
+$73.02
Record
33%
1106-2226 (3332)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $735
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $168
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $65.99
PBot-5
Down — $55