Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
17 of 25 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 512-328 (840) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 27¢ | $338.52 | $665.67 | +$398.02 | 49% 2374-2443 (4817) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5¢ | $507.35 | $500 | -$4.5 | 54% 3731-3151 (6882) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $252.3 | $500 | +$245.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $152.21 | $153.75 | +$1.54 | 98% 3966-84 (4050) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 68.8¢ | $114.61 | $85.93 | -$27.78 | 51% 3321-3240 (6561) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 68.3¢ | $211.73 | — | -$91.3 | 52% 2296-2150 (4446) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 34.9¢ | $33.48 | $96 | +$62.52 | 51% 1013-972 (1985) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $98.25 | — | -$97.24 | 52% 3555-3314 (6869) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $39.91 | $44.02 | +$4.11 | 39% 1532-2394 (3926) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $34.61 | — | -$34.61 | 54% 2440-2083 (4523) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $10.15 | $24.99 | +$14.84 | 52% 2790-2541 (5331) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.3¢ | $11.08 | — | -$11.08 | 47% 2283-2545 (4828) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $43.21 | $8.64 | -$3.2 | 63% 4195-2511 (6706) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $10.12 | — | -$10.12 | 48% 1343-1431 (2774) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $9.15 | — | -$9.15 | 47% 1551-1772 (3323) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 47% 2185-2435 (4620) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $6.48 | — | -$6.48 | 70% 1672-705 (2377) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $4.7 | $5.53 | +$0.83 | 50% 1618-1648 (3266) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $5.46 | — | -$5.46 | 42% 1805-2456 (4261) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 48% 2261-2474 (4735) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 38% 696-1135 (1831) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1401-2422 (3823) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.5¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 50% 2527-2554 (5081) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.2¢ | $5.44 | — | -$5.44 | 67% 3569-1770 (5339) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 65% 2523-1384 (3907) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
512-328 (840)
Invested
$338.52
Value
$665.67
PnL
+$398.02
Record
49%
2374-2443 (4817)
Invested
$507.35
Value
$500
PnL
-$4.5
Record
54%
3731-3151 (6882)
Both legs:
Invested
$152.21
Value
$153.75
PnL
+$1.54
Record
98%
3966-84 (4050)
Invested
$114.61
Value
$85.93
PnL
-$27.78
Record
51%
3321-3240 (6561)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$211.73
Value
—
PnL
-$91.3
Record
52%
2296-2150 (4446)
Invested
$33.48
Value
$96
PnL
+$62.52
Record
51%
1013-972 (1985)
Invested
$98.25
Value
—
PnL
-$97.24
Record
52%
3555-3314 (6869)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$39.91
Value
$44.02
PnL
+$4.11
Record
39%
1532-2394 (3926)
Invested
$34.61
Value
—
PnL
-$34.61
Record
54%
2440-2083 (4523)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.15
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$14.84
Record
52%
2790-2541 (5331)
Invested
$11.08
Value
—
PnL
-$11.08
Record
47%
2283-2545 (4828)
Invested
$43.21
Value
$8.64
PnL
-$3.2
Record
63%
4195-2511 (6706)
Invested
$10.12
Value
—
PnL
-$10.12
Record
48%
1343-1431 (2774)
Invested
$9.15
Value
—
PnL
-$9.15
Record
47%
1551-1772 (3323)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
47%
2185-2435 (4620)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$6.48
Value
—
PnL
-$6.48
Record
70%
1672-705 (2377)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$0.83
Record
50%
1618-1648 (3266)
Invested
$5.46
Value
—
PnL
-$5.46
Record
42%
1805-2456 (4261)
Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
48%
2261-2474 (4735)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
38%
696-1135 (1831)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1401-2422 (3823)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
50%
2527-2554 (5081)
Invested
$5.44
Value
—
PnL
-$5.44
Record
67%
3569-1770 (5339)
Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
65%
2523-1384 (3907)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $665.67
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $153.75
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $85.93
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
Down — $96
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $44.02
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0