Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

13 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (81%) · Down at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up36¢Down64¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$4.36

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 64.5¢

+19% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up36%

Down65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$77.9

Total Shares214

Combined PnL-$4.43

Down13 traders

Total Value$143.82

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$0.07

Up — 19%Down — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.92	61% 503-323 (826)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$741	$763.23	+$20.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$740	$717.8	-$19.15
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$512.93	$499.9	+$3.9	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$254.67	$252.45	-$0.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$243.33	$247.45	+$4.45
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$73.23	$68.25	-$4.98	51% 1005-962 (1967)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$54.9	$46.94	-$7.96	49% 1332-1414 (2746)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 59¢	$28.32	$31.2	+$2.88	48% 2240-2454 (4694)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$8.95	$12.38	+$3.43	44% 2169-2794 (4963)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 72¢	$13.9	$10	-$3.9	52% 3521-3295 (6816)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 68¢	$10.2	$9.75	-$0.45	47% 2261-2522 (4783)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 33¢	$10.65	$8.23	+$4.28	52% 2275-2131 (4406)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 33¢	$4.95	$7.43	+$2.47	54% 2422-2063 (4485)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 73¢	$7.5	$6.68	-$0.82	51% 3277-3198 (6475)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$6.46	$6.31	-$0.14	38% 686-1129 (1815)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 59¢	$3.12	$3.41	+$0.29	47% 1538-1764 (3302)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.64	$3.33	+$0.69	58% 5051-3712 (8763)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.43	+$0.13	62% 4151-2496 (6647)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 34¢	$2.04	$2.31	+$0.27	42% 1769-2426 (4195)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 49¢	$2.6	$2.1	-$0.5	67% 3532-1757 (5289)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.02	$0.99	-$0.03	51% 1955-1898 (3853)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.92

Record

61%

503-323 (826)

Both legs:

Invested

$512.93

Value

$499.9

PnL

+$3.9

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

Both legs:

Down$254.6749.9¢-$0.55

Up$243.3349.7¢+$4.45

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$73.23

Value

$68.25

PnL

-$4.98

Record

51%

1005-962 (1967)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$54.9

Value

$46.94

PnL

-$7.96

Record

49%

1332-1414 (2746)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$28.32

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

2240-2454 (4694)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$8.95

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$3.43

Record

44%

2169-2794 (4963)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$13.9

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.9

Record

52%

3521-3295 (6816)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

2261-2522 (4783)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$10.65

Value

$8.23

PnL

+$4.28

Record

52%

2275-2131 (4406)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$7.43

PnL

+$2.47

Record

54%

2422-2063 (4485)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.68

PnL

-$0.82

Record

51%

3277-3198 (6475)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$6.46

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

686-1129 (1815)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$0.29

Record

47%

1538-1764 (3302)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

5051-3712 (8763)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.13

Record

62%

4151-2496 (6647)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.27

Record

42%

1769-2426 (4195)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

67%

3532-1757 (5289)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

1955-1898 (3853)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 16 top traders (81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$49.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.