Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Down 30%
$1.8K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 23 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 55.4¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | +$47.29 | 61% 503-323 (826) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $253.57 | $256.13 | +$2.56 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $95.67 | — | -$95.67 | 54% 2422-2063 (4485) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 33.1¢ | $44.3 | $74.79 | +$30.49 | 52% 3521-3295 (6816) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 31.3¢ | $18.25 | $58.35 | +$40.1 | 42% 1769-2426 (4195) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $58.55 | $49.58 | +$20.27 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $48.08 | — | -$48.08 | 47% 1538-1764 (3302) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $7.97 | $33.21 | +$25.24 | 39% 1501-2385 (3886) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $36.03 | — | -$34.17 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 31.6¢ | $18.09 | $29 | +$10.91 | 44% 2169-2794 (4963) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $19.07 | $21.59 | +$2.52 | 67% 3532-1757 (5289) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 47.6¢ | $26.81 | $26.69 | +$6.98 | 62% 4151-2496 (6647) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 43.8¢ | $10.95 | $25 | +$14.05 | 51% 1005-962 (1967) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.7 | $11.28 | +$5.58 | 38% 686-1129 (1815) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $7.77 | — | -$7.77 | 47% 2261-2522 (4783) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.85 | $5.61 | +$3.76 | 50% 2497-2540 (5037) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $3.3 | $5.32 | +$2.02 | 64% 2500-1377 (3877) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $5.1 | $17 | +$11.9 | 48% 2240-2454 (4694) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $50.7 | $10.84 | -$1.02 | 59% 3835-2614 (6449) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 24.6¢ | $3.59 | $14.6 | +$11.01 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 37% 1396-2392 (3788) |
Invested
$1,305.24
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$47.29
Record
61%
503-323 (826)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Invested
$253.57
Value
$256.13
PnL
+$2.56
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$95.67
Value
—
PnL
-$95.67
Record
54%
2422-2063 (4485)
Invested
$44.3
Value
$74.79
PnL
+$30.49
Record
52%
3521-3295 (6816)
Invested
$18.25
Value
$58.35
PnL
+$40.1
Record
42%
1769-2426 (4195)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$58.55
Value
$49.58
PnL
+$20.27
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$48.08
Value
—
PnL
-$48.08
Record
47%
1538-1764 (3302)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$7.97
Value
$33.21
PnL
+$25.24
Record
39%
1501-2385 (3886)
Invested
$36.03
Value
—
PnL
-$34.17
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$18.09
Value
$29
PnL
+$10.91
Record
44%
2169-2794 (4963)
Invested
$19.07
Value
$21.59
PnL
+$2.52
Record
67%
3532-1757 (5289)
Invested
$26.81
Value
$26.69
PnL
+$6.98
Record
62%
4151-2496 (6647)
Invested
$10.95
Value
$25
PnL
+$14.05
Record
51%
1005-962 (1967)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$11.28
PnL
+$5.58
Record
38%
686-1129 (1815)
Invested
$7.77
Value
—
PnL
-$7.77
Record
47%
2261-2522 (4783)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$3.76
Record
50%
2497-2540 (5037)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$2.02
Record
64%
2500-1377 (3877)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$17
PnL
+$11.9
Record
48%
2240-2454 (4694)
Invested
$50.7
Value
$10.84
PnL
-$1.02
Record
59%
3835-2614 (6449)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$11.01
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
1396-2392 (3788)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.2K
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $256.13
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $74.79
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $58.35
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $49.58
rabadabadoo
CTRDown — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $33.21