Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$216.33
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$0.74 | 61% 503-323 (826) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | $720 | -$4.95 | 52% 3521-3295 (6816) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $507.1 | $490 | -$5 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $252.11 | — | -$250.4 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $140.77 | $142.19 | +$1.42 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $42.83 | $70 | +$36.67 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $31.85 | — | -$31.85 | 49% 1332-1414 (2746) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $21.15 | — | -$21.15 | 54% 2422-2063 (4485) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $20.83 | $27.75 | +$7.92 | 59% 3835-2614 (6449) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 92.1¢ | $15.66 | $17 | +$1.34 | 52% 2764-2526 (5290) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $12.47 | $23.99 | +$11.51 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 80.3¢ | $18.99 | $10.19 | +$1.33 | 62% 4151-2496 (6647) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.2¢ | $8.67 | — | -$8.67 | 48% 2240-2454 (4694) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $6.64 | $12.53 | +$5.89 | 38% 686-1129 (1815) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 50% 848-846 (1694) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 15.2¢ | $93.33 | — | -$93.33 | 42% 1769-2426 (4195) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.8¢ | $0.23 | — | -$0.23 | 33% 1084-2220 (3304) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 37.9¢ | $114.19 | — | -$114.19 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.7¢ | $2.66 | — | -$2.66 | 39% 1501-2385 (3886) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0.74
Record
61%
503-323 (826)
Invested
$750
Value
$720
PnL
-$4.95
Record
52%
3521-3295 (6816)
Invested
$507.1
Value
$490
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.77
Value
$142.19
PnL
+$1.42
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$42.83
Value
$70
PnL
+$36.67
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$31.85
Value
—
PnL
-$31.85
Record
49%
1332-1414 (2746)
Invested
$21.15
Value
—
PnL
-$21.15
Record
54%
2422-2063 (4485)
Invested
$20.83
Value
$27.75
PnL
+$7.92
Record
59%
3835-2614 (6449)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.66
Value
$17
PnL
+$1.34
Record
52%
2764-2526 (5290)
Invested
$12.47
Value
$23.99
PnL
+$11.51
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
Invested
$18.99
Value
$10.19
PnL
+$1.33
Record
62%
4151-2496 (6647)
Invested
$8.67
Value
—
PnL
-$8.67
Record
48%
2240-2454 (4694)
Invested
$6.64
Value
$12.53
PnL
+$5.89
Record
38%
686-1129 (1815)
Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
50%
848-846 (1694)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
Invested
$93.33
Value
—
PnL
-$93.33
Record
42%
1769-2426 (4195)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.23
Value
—
PnL
-$0.23
Record
33%
1084-2220 (3304)
Invested
$114.19
Value
—
PnL
-$114.19
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
—
PnL
-$2.66
Record
39%
1501-2385 (3886)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.4K
soswald1
Up — $720
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $142.19
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $70
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $27.75
MayorMamdani
Up — $17
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $23.99