Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Up 48%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$744.21
Smart Money Signal
11 of 23 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$8.87 | 61% 490-314 (804) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $639.33 | $1.3K | +$709.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $633.26 | — | -$700.47 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.2¢ | $508.72 | — | -$490.84 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.8¢ | $105.73 | $109.19 | +$3.46 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 76.7¢ | $118.16 | $94.7 | -$2.14 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 82.7¢ | $100.58 | $86.14 | -$14.45 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.7¢ | $71.27 | $86.14 | +$14.87 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.9¢ | $29.31 | — | -$29.31 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $41.56 | $40.47 | +$1.73 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $37.06 | $51.62 | +$14.56 | 47% 1521-1740 (3261) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $36.31 | $43 | +$6.69 | 59% 3783-2578 (6361) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 16¢ | $182.43 | — | -$145.36 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $40.03 | $29.47 | +$10.91 | 54% 2390-2039 (4429) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $47.12 | $16.71 | +$5.12 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $18.16 | $16.26 | -$1.9 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $17.67 | — | -$17.67 | 51% 1932-1885 (3817) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 72.3¢ | $12.64 | $17.48 | +$4.84 | 52% 2738-2492 (5230) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 47.1¢ | $11.09 | $13.63 | +$2.54 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $11.05 | — | -$11.05 | 47% 2230-2478 (4708) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 93.5¢ | $9.45 | $10.11 | +$0.66 | 50% 1577-1608 (3185) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 2852-3388 (6240) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.7¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $7.53 | — | -$7.53 | 38% 670-1098 (1768) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $0.98 | $2 | +$1.02 | 71% 1635-682 (2317) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 65% 2474-1360 (3834) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 19.3¢ | $106.42 | — | -$106.42 | 42% 1736-2377 (4113) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $3.02 | — | -$3.02 | 47% 2139-2368 (4507) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$8.87
Record
61%
490-314 (804)
Both legs:
Invested
$508.72
Value
—
PnL
-$490.84
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
Invested
$105.73
Value
$109.19
PnL
+$3.46
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$118.16
Value
$94.7
PnL
-$2.14
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$100.58
Value
$86.14
PnL
-$14.45
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$41.56
Value
$40.47
PnL
+$1.73
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)
Invested
$37.06
Value
$51.62
PnL
+$14.56
Record
47%
1521-1740 (3261)
Invested
$36.31
Value
$43
PnL
+$6.69
Record
59%
3783-2578 (6361)
Invested
$182.43
Value
—
PnL
-$145.36
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$40.03
Value
$29.47
PnL
+$10.91
Record
54%
2390-2039 (4429)
Invested
$47.12
Value
$16.71
PnL
+$5.12
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
Invested
$18.16
Value
$16.26
PnL
-$1.9
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
Invested
$17.67
Value
—
PnL
-$17.67
Record
51%
1932-1885 (3817)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$12.64
Value
$17.48
PnL
+$4.84
Record
52%
2738-2492 (5230)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.09
Value
$13.63
PnL
+$2.54
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
Invested
$11.05
Value
—
PnL
-$11.05
Record
47%
2230-2478 (4708)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$10.11
PnL
+$0.66
Record
50%
1577-1608 (3185)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
2852-3388 (6240)
Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$7.53
Value
—
PnL
-$7.53
Record
38%
670-1098 (1768)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$2
PnL
+$1.02
Record
71%
1635-682 (2317)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
65%
2474-1360 (3834)
Invested
$106.42
Value
—
PnL
-$106.42
Record
42%
1736-2377 (4113)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.02
Value
—
PnL
-$3.02
Record
47%
2139-2368 (4507)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $109.19
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $94.7
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $40.47
rabadabadoo
Down — $51.62
aaa221
Down — $43
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $29.47