Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 68%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$484.93
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$6.19 | 61% 490-314 (804) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $629.26 | $1.3K | +$648.29 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $634.75 | — | -$654.48 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 54.4¢ | $526.94 | $543.93 | +$27.62 | 49% 2317-2371 (4688) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $504.8 | — | -$502.19 | 54% 3632-3064 (6696) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $49 | $98.35 | +$49.35 | 47% 181-205 (386) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $84.35 | $40.71 | -$43.64 | 51% 3248-3166 (6414) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.1¢ | $52.89 | — | -$52.89 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.3¢ | $31.46 | $40.71 | +$9.25 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $73.05 | $73.79 | +$0.74 | 98% 3857-81 (3938) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.5¢ | $69.01 | — | -$29.2 | 52% 2247-2098 (4345) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $39.23 | $38.31 | -$0.92 | 47% 1521-1740 (3261) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 81.3¢ | $61.34 | $30.71 | -$13.15 | 54% 2390-2039 (4429) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $29.23 | $30.34 | +$3.81 | 52% 3474-3256 (6730) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $24.83 | — | -$24.83 | 49% 1304-1382 (2686) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $16.76 | $33.49 | +$16.73 | 63% 4099-2458 (6557) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $26.06 | $22 | -$4.06 | 67% 3477-1728 (5205) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $22.59 | $34 | +$11.41 | 44% 2131-2751 (4882) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.8¢ | $14.65 | — | -$14.65 | 48% 2195-2413 (4608) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $11.35 | $15 | +$3.65 | 47% 2139-2368 (4507) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $13.33 | — | -$13.33 | 47% 2230-2478 (4708) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 65% 2474-1360 (3834) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $3.22 | $7.48 | +$4.26 | 50% 2462-2507 (4969) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.7 | $5.4 | +$2.7 | 37% 1383-2353 (3736) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.3¢ | $2.93 | — | -$2.93 | 38% 1469-2355 (3824) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$6.19
Record
61%
490-314 (804)
Both legs:
Invested
$526.94
Value
$543.93
PnL
+$27.62
Record
49%
2317-2371 (4688)
Invested
$504.8
Value
—
PnL
-$502.19
Record
54%
3632-3064 (6696)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$49
Value
$98.35
PnL
+$49.35
Record
47%
181-205 (386)
Invested
$84.35
Value
$40.71
PnL
-$43.64
Record
51%
3248-3166 (6414)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.05
Value
$73.79
PnL
+$0.74
Record
98%
3857-81 (3938)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$69.01
Value
—
PnL
-$29.2
Record
52%
2247-2098 (4345)
Invested
$39.23
Value
$38.31
PnL
-$0.92
Record
47%
1521-1740 (3261)
Invested
$61.34
Value
$30.71
PnL
-$13.15
Record
54%
2390-2039 (4429)
Invested
$29.23
Value
$30.34
PnL
+$3.81
Record
52%
3474-3256 (6730)
Invested
$24.83
Value
—
PnL
-$24.83
Record
49%
1304-1382 (2686)
Invested
$16.76
Value
$33.49
PnL
+$16.73
Record
63%
4099-2458 (6557)
Invested
$26.06
Value
$22
PnL
-$4.06
Record
67%
3477-1728 (5205)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$22.59
Value
$34
PnL
+$11.41
Record
44%
2131-2751 (4882)
Invested
$14.65
Value
—
PnL
-$14.65
Record
48%
2195-2413 (4608)
ohioism<$100Invested
$11.35
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.65
Record
47%
2139-2368 (4507)
Invested
$13.33
Value
—
PnL
-$13.33
Record
47%
2230-2478 (4708)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
65%
2474-1360 (3834)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$4.26
Record
50%
2462-2507 (4969)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$2.7
Record
37%
1383-2353 (3736)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.93
Value
—
PnL
-$2.93
Record
38%
1469-2355 (3824)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $543.93
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
wowitsamazing
Down — $98.35
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $73.79
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $38.31
ply-pm2
Down — $30.71
soswald1
Down — $30.34