Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,636

Combined PnL+$156.02

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,932

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$4.28	61% 490-314 (804)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 45.4¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$750	$653.3	+$33.61	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$524.49	$493.57	+$0.25	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$248.21	$493.57	+$248.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$244.56	—	-$248.09
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 43.8¢	$124.29	$138.02	+$27.23	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 50.7¢	$112.59	$133.16	+$20.57	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$132.61	$134	+$1.39	98% 3857-81 (3938)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 66¢	$78.4	$101.24	+$22.84	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$53.63	$55.14	+$1.51	47% 1521-1740 (3261)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$25.17	$55.14	+$29.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.3¢	$28.46	—	-$28.46
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$40.63	$51.94	+$11.31	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 44.2¢	$25.83	$30.06	+$4.23	67% 3477-1728 (5205)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 97.3¢	$29.2	$30	+$0.8	50% 1577-1608 (3185)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 61.9¢	$34.05	$55	+$20.95	51% 990-949 (1939)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$31.92	$28.98	-$2.94	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$44.47	—	-$35.56	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$12.1	—	-$12.1	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 61¢	$16.85	$20	+$3.15	52% 2738-2492 (5230)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$13.28	$17.9	+$4.62	38% 670-1098 (1768)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$21.16	$15	+$12.05	63% 4099-2458 (6557)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$4.04	—	-$4.04	65% 2474-1360 (3834)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 38¢	$7.22	—	-$7.22	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$5.9	—	-$5.9	38% 1469-2355 (3824)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	42% 1736-2377 (4113)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 24¢	$1.12	—	-$1.12	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 51¢	$0.51	$1	+$0.49	49% 1304-1382 (2686)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.28

Record

61%

490-314 (804)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$1,515.67

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$653.3

PnL

+$33.61

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.49

Value

$493.57

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Down$248.2150.3¢+$248.35

Up$244.5649.6¢-$248.09

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$124.29

Value

$138.02

PnL

+$27.23

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$112.59

Value

$133.16

PnL

+$20.57

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$132.61

Value

$134

PnL

+$1.39

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$78.4

Value

$101.24

PnL

+$22.84

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

rabadabadooARB<$100

Invested

$53.63

Value

$55.14

PnL

+$1.51

Record

47%

1521-1740 (3261)

Both legs:

Down$25.1745.7¢+$29.97

Up$28.4642.3¢-$28.46

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$40.63

Value

$51.94

PnL

+$11.31

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$25.83

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$4.23

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$29.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$34.05

Value

$55

PnL

+$20.95

Record

51%

990-949 (1939)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$31.92

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$2.94

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$44.47

Value

—

PnL

-$35.56

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

—

PnL

-$12.1

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$16.85

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.15

Record

52%

2738-2492 (5230)

flippingsharks<$100

Down

Invested

$13.28

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$4.62

Record

38%

670-1098 (1768)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$21.16

Value

$15

PnL

+$12.05

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

—

PnL

-$4.04

Record

65%

2474-1360 (3834)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$7.22

Value

—

PnL

-$7.22

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

—

PnL

-$5.9

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$0.51

Value

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

1304-1382 (2686)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 25 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe81f8d4f...0e3160

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794700800

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $1.2K

-$4.28

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K

soswald1

Down — $653.3

+$33.61

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$0.25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $138.02

+$27.23

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $133.16

+$20.57

hoodquant

Down — $134

+$1.39

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $101.24

+$22.84

rabadabadoo

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.51

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $51.94

+$11.31

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