Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (76%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Up (38%) · Up at 25¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Up25¢Down75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$8.18

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 24.5¢

-50% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up25%

Down76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$558.29

Total Shares648

Combined PnL-$7.99

Down5 traders

Total Value$53.96

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$0.19

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.88	61% 490-314 (804)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$745.26	$983.74	+$239.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$737.5	$501.5	-$238.15
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$750	$748.04	+$0.23	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$375	$566.25	+$191.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$371	$181.79	-$191.02
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$49.7	$42.49	-$7.21	47% 181-205 (386)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$33.05	$33.43	+$0.38	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$16.58	$15.79	-$0.78	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.43	-$0.38	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 78¢	$6.69	$6.48	-$0.21	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.78	-$0.13	67% 3477-1728 (5205)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 65¢	$2.71	$2.86	+$0.15	63% 4099-2458 (6557)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.88

Record

61%

490-314 (804)

Both legs:

Down$745.2650¢+$239.03

Up$737.550¢-$238.15

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$748.04

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

Both legs:

Down$37550¢+$191.25

Up$37150¢-$191.02

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$49.7

Value

$42.49

PnL

-$7.21

Record

47%

181-205 (386)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$33.05

Value

$33.43

PnL

+$0.38

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$16.58

Value

$15.79

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$0.38

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$0.21

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$0.13

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.15

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Down 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.8%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$272.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

372.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.