Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 6 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$1.09

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,544

Combined PnL-$5.78

Down9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,405

Combined PnL+$4.69

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$0.25	61% 490-314 (804)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50¢	$750	$744.68	+$0.88	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$500	$498.4	+$0.1	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 76¢	$72.08	$69.7	+$1.61	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93.4¢	$22.53	$22.85	+$0.32	67% 3477-1728 (5205)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 47¢	$16.45	$17.33	+$0.88	49% 1304-1382 (2686)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$14.08	$14.55	+$0.48	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$11.64	$11.5	-$0.14	58% 5031-3699 (8730)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$10	$10	+$0	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 55¢	$3.67	$3.97	+$0.3	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.7	+$0.05	44% 2131-2751 (4882)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$4.26	$2.25	-$2.01	38% 670-1098 (1768)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 80¢	$5.3	$2.04	+$0.08	63% 4099-2458 (6557)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 7.5¢	$2.39	$1.12	-$1.27	38% 1469-2355 (3824)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 13.5¢	$2.71	$0.1	-$2.61	51% 3248-3166 (6414)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.25

Record

61%

490-314 (804)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$750

Value

$744.68

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$498.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$72.08

Value

$69.7

PnL

+$1.61

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$22.53

Value

$22.85

PnL

+$0.32

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$16.45

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

1304-1382 (2686)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$14.08

Value

$14.55

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$11.64

Value

$11.5

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

5031-3699 (8730)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$3.67

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

2131-2751 (4882)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$2.01

Record

38%

670-1098 (1768)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$0.08

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$1.27

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.