Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$584.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL-$890.57

Up8 traders

Total Value$687.99

Total Shares688

Combined PnL+$305.92

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$8.18	61% 490-314 (804)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$700.93	$1.4K	+$700.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$698.53	—	-$692.23
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$512.54	$490	+$3.3	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$241.2	$490	+$247.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$246.41	—	-$244
HO hoodquantCTR	Downavg 97.9¢	$432.59	—	-$432.59	98% 3857-81 (3938)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 11.6¢	$64.17	$377.24	+$320.42	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 93.4¢	$167.52	$104	-$63.52	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$79.13	—	-$76.52	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$64.19	$85.57	+$21.38	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$53.32	—	-$53.32	50% 4482-4555 (9037)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37.8¢	$44.16	—	-$44.16	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 61.5¢	$57.27	$57	-$0.27	51% 1932-1885 (3817)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.5¢	$35.04	$57	+$21.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$22.23	—	-$22.23
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$42.39	—	-$42.39	52% 3474-3256 (6730)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$43.76	—	-$43.76	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$72.67	—	-$45.01	67% 3477-1728 (5205)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$46.28	—	-$46.28	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 90.2¢	$72.62	$35.28	-$4.43	63% 4099-2458 (6557)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$51.76	—	-$45.84	47% 1521-1740 (3261)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 65¢	$24.07	$24	-$0.07	65% 2474-1360 (3834)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$15.73	$15.75	+$0.02	52% 1415-1309 (2724)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$6.51	—	-$6.51	71% 1635-682 (2317)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 14.8¢	$3.73	$25.15	+$21.42	38% 1469-2355 (3824)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$10.26	—	-$10.26	52% 2738-2492 (5230)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 49¢	$10.29	$21	+$10.71	58% 5031-3699 (8730)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Downavg 23.1¢	$3.89	—	-$3.89	38% 670-1098 (1768)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 18.5¢	$16.14	—	-$16.14	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$23.9	—	-$23.9	44% 2131-2751 (4882)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$8.18

Record

61%

490-314 (804)

Both legs:

Up$700.9350¢+$700.41

Down$698.5350¢-$692.23

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$512.54

Value

$490

PnL

+$3.3

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$241.249.2¢+$247.3

Down$246.4150.3¢-$244

hoodquantCTR

Down

Invested

$432.59

Value

—

PnL

-$432.59

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$64.17

Value

$377.24

PnL

+$320.42

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$167.52

Value

$104

PnL

-$63.52

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.13

Value

—

PnL

-$76.52

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$64.19

Value

$85.57

PnL

+$21.38

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$53.32

Value

—

PnL

-$53.32

Record

50%

4482-4555 (9037)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$44.16

Value

—

PnL

-$44.16

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$57.27

Value

$57

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

Both legs:

Up$35.0461.5¢+$21.96

Down$22.2350.5¢-$22.23

soswald1CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.39

Value

—

PnL

-$42.39

Record

52%

3474-3256 (6730)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$43.76

Value

—

PnL

-$43.76

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$72.67

Value

—

PnL

-$45.01

Record

67%

3477-1728 (5205)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$46.28

Value

—

PnL

-$46.28

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$72.62

Value

$35.28

PnL

-$4.43

Record

63%

4099-2458 (6557)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.76

Value

—

PnL

-$45.84

Record

47%

1521-1740 (3261)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$24.07

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.07

Record

65%

2474-1360 (3834)

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$15.73

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

1415-1309 (2724)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.51

Value

—

PnL

-$6.51

Record

71%

1635-682 (2317)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$25.15

PnL

+$21.42

Record

38%

1469-2355 (3824)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.26

Value

—

PnL

-$10.26

Record

52%

2738-2492 (5230)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$21

PnL

+$10.71

Record

58%

5031-3699 (8730)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.89

Value

—

PnL

-$3.89

Record

38%

670-1098 (1768)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.14

Value

—

PnL

-$16.14

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.9

Value

—

PnL

-$23.9

Record

44%

2131-2751 (4882)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x79dccbf2...9fe545

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794698100

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $377.24

+$320.42

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $104

-$63.52

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

CTR

Down — $0

-$76.52

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $85.57

asdcaxz

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.27

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