Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$74.93

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,753

Combined PnL+$11.96

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,025

Combined PnL-$86.89

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$16.77	98% 3813-79 (3892)
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.07	61% 482-308 (790)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$498.37	-$0.63	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.39	$250.87	+$1.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$247.5	-$2.5
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 82¢	$42.18	$45.01	+$2.83	59% 3751-2555 (6306)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 64.9¢	$70.7	$30.92	+$1.32	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 91¢	$22.75	$22.88	+$0.13	48% 2164-2388 (4552)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$18.15	$19.8	+$1.65	48% 1276-1362 (2638)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$23.94	$12.58	-$11.36	52% 1406-1302 (2708)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 90.6¢	$9.51	$9.6	+$0.09	47% 2109-2347 (4456)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$7.64	$8.12	+$0.48	67% 3450-1707 (5157)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$4.84	$6.06	+$1.21	38% 659-1077 (1736)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$8.6	$5.63	-$2.97	52% 3445-3233 (6678)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72¢	$5.25	$5.48	+$0.48	63% 4066-2434 (6500)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69¢	$7.06	$5.06	-$1.99	54% 2366-2025 (4391)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 70¢	$3.5	$5	+$1.5	44% 2109-2719 (4828)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.58	+$0.08	47% 2202-2452 (4654)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$5.79	$2.85	-$2.94	52% 2715-2472 (5187)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 7.5¢	$1.2	$0.24	-$0.96	50% 4458-4532 (8990)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 17.9¢	$83.53	$0.23	-$83.3	49% 2292-2354 (4646)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,531.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$16.77

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.07

Record

61%

482-308 (790)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$498.37

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Both legs:

Invested

$42.18

Value

$45.01

PnL

+$2.83

Record

59%

3751-2555 (6306)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$70.7

Value

$30.92

PnL

+$1.32

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$22.75

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2164-2388 (4552)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$18.15

Value

$19.8

PnL

+$1.65

Record

48%

1276-1362 (2638)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$23.94

Value

$12.58

PnL

-$11.36

Record

52%

1406-1302 (2708)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$9.51

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$7.64

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$0.48

Record

67%

3450-1707 (5157)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$1.21

Record

38%

659-1077 (1736)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$5.63

PnL

-$2.97

Record

52%

3445-3233 (6678)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

63%

4066-2434 (6500)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$1.99

Record

54%

2366-2025 (4391)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

44%

2109-2719 (4828)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2202-2452 (4654)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$5.79

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$2.94

Record

52%

2715-2472 (5187)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

4458-4532 (8990)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$83.53

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$83.3

Record

49%

2292-2354 (4646)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.