Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$537.85
Smart Money Signal
11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | +$5.7 | 61% 482-308 (790) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 62.4¢ | $927.98 | $1.1K | +$227.04 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $750 | — | -$714.61 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $577.58 | $583.41 | +$5.83 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $512.23 | $500 | +$1 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $250.69 | $500 | +$250.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $246.47 | — | -$249.5 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $54.4 | $48 | -$6.4 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $51.23 | $50.43 | +$9.92 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.3¢ | $58.64 | — | -$40.44 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $73.04 | $39.3 | -$3.73 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $16.2 | $17.61 | +$1.41 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $17.25 | $15 | -$2.25 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $12.06 | $19 | +$6.94 | 47% 2202-2452 (4654) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.7¢ | $7.6 | — | -$7.6 | 38% 659-1077 (1736) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.3¢ | $5.04 | — | -$5.04 | 47% 1504-1730 (3234) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 15.5¢ | $9.63 | — | -$9.63 | 52% 2715-2472 (5187) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $9.63 | — | -$7.11 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $6.63 | $5.08 | +$2.24 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $5 | +$2.75 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 33% 1050-2176 (3226) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 38% 1448-2335 (3783) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 71% 1617-670 (2287) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$5.7
Record
61%
482-308 (790)
Invested
$927.98
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$227.04
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$750
Value
—
PnL
-$714.61
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Invested
$577.58
Value
$583.41
PnL
+$5.83
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$512.23
Value
$500
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$54.4
Value
$48
PnL
-$6.4
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$51.23
Value
$50.43
PnL
+$9.92
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$58.64
Value
—
PnL
-$40.44
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$73.04
Value
$39.3
PnL
-$3.73
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$17.61
PnL
+$1.41
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
ohioism<$100Invested
$17.25
Value
$15
PnL
-$2.25
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$19
PnL
+$6.94
Record
47%
2202-2452 (4654)
Invested
$7.6
Value
—
PnL
-$7.6
Record
38%
659-1077 (1736)
Invested
$5.04
Value
—
PnL
-$5.04
Record
47%
1504-1730 (3234)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$9.63
Value
—
PnL
-$9.63
Record
52%
2715-2472 (5187)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.63
Value
—
PnL
-$7.11
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$2.24
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
33%
1050-2176 (3226)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
38%
1448-2335 (3783)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
71%
1617-670 (2287)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $583.41
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $48
aaa221
Down — $50.43
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $39.3
asdaefef
Down — $17.61