Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Up 52%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 26 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 482-308 (790) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $517.14 | $498.69 | -$3.56 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.4¢ | $256.19 | $498.69 | +$245.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $247.5 | — | -$248.95 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 69.4¢ | $218.23 | $212.66 | -$3.82 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 46.3¢ | $49.84 | $107.67 | +$57.83 | 47% 180-202 (382) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $58.34 | $66.3 | +$7.96 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $38.24 | $44.74 | +$6.5 | 38% 1448-2335 (3783) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $27.4 | $40.47 | +$13.07 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $40.84 | $41 | +$0.16 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $21.73 | — | -$21.73 | 58% 5021-3684 (8705) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 48% 1276-1362 (2638) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $17.44 | — | -$17.44 | 47% 2202-2452 (4654) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $9.96 | $11 | +$1.04 | 52% 2715-2472 (5187) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $39.82 | $11 | -$0.97 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $10.7 | $10 | -$0.7 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $10.24 | — | -$10.24 | 51% 983-938 (1921) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.65 | $10.18 | +$1.53 | 33% 1050-2176 (3226) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $8.3 | — | -$8.3 | 38% 659-1077 (1736) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.5¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $2.34 | — | -$2.34 | 47% 1504-1730 (3234) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.92 | $3.92 | +$2 | 51% 1919-1881 (3800) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.26 | — | -$1.26 | 42% 1711-2331 (4042) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 46% 2830-3355 (6185) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $0.92 | $1.92 | +$1 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 13.4¢ | $159.2 | — | -$159.2 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
482-308 (790)
Invested
$517.14
Value
$498.69
PnL
-$3.56
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.23
Value
$212.66
PnL
-$3.82
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
wowitsamazingInvested
$49.84
Value
$107.67
PnL
+$57.83
Record
47%
180-202 (382)
Invested
$58.34
Value
$66.3
PnL
+$7.96
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$38.24
Value
$44.74
PnL
+$6.5
Record
38%
1448-2335 (3783)
Invested
$27.4
Value
$40.47
PnL
+$13.07
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Invested
$40.84
Value
$41
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$21.73
Value
—
PnL
-$21.73
Record
58%
5021-3684 (8705)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
48%
1276-1362 (2638)
Invested
$17.44
Value
—
PnL
-$17.44
Record
47%
2202-2452 (4654)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.96
Value
$11
PnL
+$1.04
Record
52%
2715-2472 (5187)
Invested
$39.82
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.97
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.7
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
Invested
$10.24
Value
—
PnL
-$10.24
Record
51%
983-938 (1921)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$8.65
Value
$10.18
PnL
+$1.53
Record
33%
1050-2176 (3226)
Invested
$8.3
Value
—
PnL
-$8.3
Record
38%
659-1077 (1736)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.4
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$2.34
Value
—
PnL
-$2.34
Record
47%
1504-1730 (3234)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$3.92
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
1919-1881 (3800)
Invested
$1.26
Value
—
PnL
-$1.26
Record
42%
1711-2331 (4042)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
46%
2830-3355 (6185)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$1
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
Invested
$159.2
Value
—
PnL
-$159.2
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $212.66
wowitsamazing
Down — $107.67
aaa221
Down — $66.3
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $44.74
soswald1
Down — $40.47
ply-pm2
Down — $41
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
PBot-5
CTRUp — $0