Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$959.69
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 22 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 482-308 (790) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.7¢ | $508.72 | $490 | -$4.7 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $245.4 | $490 | +$247.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $251.92 | — | -$252.3 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $188.1 | $190 | +$1.9 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $65.59 | $41 | +$2.25 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $44.12 | $59.99 | +$15.87 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $39.13 | $36.2 | -$2.93 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $34.63 | $66 | +$31.37 | 51% 1919-1881 (3800) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.6¢ | $27.9 | — | -$27.9 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $15.75 | $35 | +$19.25 | 48% 1276-1362 (2638) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $11.1 | $15 | +$3.9 | 71% 1617-670 (2287) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.9¢ | $25.47 | — | -$25.47 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $10.78 | $11 | +$0.22 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $12.3 | $10.5 | +$0.39 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $6.36 | — | -$6.36 | 58% 5021-3684 (8705) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 52% 1406-1302 (2708) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $5 | +$1.9 | 38% 659-1077 (1736) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.42 | — | -$0.42 | 33% 1050-2176 (3226) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.6¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 52% 2715-2472 (5187) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 28.7¢ | $225.79 | — | -$225.79 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $1.47 | — | -$1.47 | 47% 1504-1730 (3234) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.1¢ | $3.18 | — | -$3.18 | 38% 1448-2335 (3783) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $9.74 | — | -$9.74 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 47% 2202-2452 (4654) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
482-308 (790)
Invested
$508.72
Value
$490
PnL
-$4.7
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$188.1
Value
$190
PnL
+$1.9
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$65.59
Value
$41
PnL
+$2.25
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$44.12
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$15.87
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Invested
$39.13
Value
$36.2
PnL
-$2.93
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$34.63
Value
$66
PnL
+$31.37
Record
51%
1919-1881 (3800)
Invested
$27.9
Value
—
PnL
-$27.9
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$35
PnL
+$19.25
Record
48%
1276-1362 (2638)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.9
Record
71%
1617-670 (2287)
Invested
$25.47
Value
—
PnL
-$25.47
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$11
PnL
+$0.22
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.39
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
Invested
$6.36
Value
—
PnL
-$6.36
Record
58%
5021-3684 (8705)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
52%
1406-1302 (2708)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.9
Record
38%
659-1077 (1736)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.42
Value
—
PnL
-$0.42
Record
33%
1050-2176 (3226)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
52%
2715-2472 (5187)
Invested
$225.79
Value
—
PnL
-$225.79
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$1.47
Value
—
PnL
-$1.47
Record
47%
1504-1730 (3234)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
—
PnL
-$3.18
Record
38%
1448-2335 (3783)
Invested
$9.74
Value
—
PnL
-$9.74
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
47%
2202-2452 (4654)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $190
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $41
aaa221
Up — $59.99
ply-pm2
Up — $36.2
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $66
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
PBot-5
Up — $35
BoneOhio
Up — $15