Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
27
Down 30%
$1.8K
$-1.2K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 27 top traders (30%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 61% 482-308 (790) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $516.87 | $500.78 | +$6.89 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $271.05 | $275.05 | +$4 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 22.1¢ | $142.93 | $258.01 | +$231.87 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 27.5¢ | $126.93 | — | -$126.93 | 50% 4458-4532 (8990) |
BO bosona | Upavg 85.4¢ | $249.61 | $150 | -$99.61 | 51% 4683-4502 (9185) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 70.5¢ | $115.03 | $128.47 | +$13.43 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 54.7¢ | $64.11 | $70 | +$33.39 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 90.1¢ | $73.34 | $66.31 | -$6.35 | 38% 1448-2335 (3783) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 54¢ | $63.42 | $108 | +$44.58 | 58% 5021-3684 (8705) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $58.95 | $60.35 | +$1.4 | 52% 3445-3233 (6678) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 67.4¢ | $45.08 | $26.52 | +$0.33 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77.1¢ | $20.67 | $24.82 | +$4.15 | 67% 3450-1707 (5157) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $11.09 | $46.21 | +$35.12 | 71% 1617-670 (2287) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $16.45 | — | -$16.45 | 48% 1276-1362 (2638) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 93.2¢ | $15.84 | $17 | +$1.16 | 52% 2715-2472 (5187) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $11.71 | — | -$11.71 | 47% 2202-2452 (4654) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $10.92 | — | -$10.92 | 51% 983-938 (1921) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 41.9¢ | $13.04 | $26 | +$12.96 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $15.01 | $11 | -$0.56 | 63% 4066-2434 (6500) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $8.7 | $15 | +$6.3 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.3¢ | $9.87 | — | -$9.87 | 50% 823-817 (1640) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $8.7 | $15.72 | +$7.02 | 38% 659-1077 (1736) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $13.3 | — | -$4.6 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $4.85 | $5.05 | +$0.2 | 50% 2442-2474 (4916) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
61%
482-308 (790)
Invested
$516.87
Value
$500.78
PnL
+$6.89
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$271.05
Value
$275.05
PnL
+$4
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$142.93
Value
$258.01
PnL
+$231.87
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$126.93
Value
—
PnL
-$126.93
Record
50%
4458-4532 (8990)
Invested
$249.61
Value
$150
PnL
-$99.61
Record
51%
4683-4502 (9185)
Invested
$115.03
Value
$128.47
PnL
+$13.43
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$64.11
Value
$70
PnL
+$33.39
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$73.34
Value
$66.31
PnL
-$6.35
Record
38%
1448-2335 (3783)
Invested
$63.42
Value
$108
PnL
+$44.58
Record
58%
5021-3684 (8705)
Invested
$58.95
Value
$60.35
PnL
+$1.4
Record
52%
3445-3233 (6678)
Invested
$45.08
Value
$26.52
PnL
+$0.33
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Invested
$20.67
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$4.15
Record
67%
3450-1707 (5157)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$11.09
Value
$46.21
PnL
+$35.12
Record
71%
1617-670 (2287)
Invested
$16.45
Value
—
PnL
-$16.45
Record
48%
1276-1362 (2638)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.84
Value
$17
PnL
+$1.16
Record
52%
2715-2472 (5187)
Invested
$11.71
Value
—
PnL
-$11.71
Record
47%
2202-2452 (4654)
Invested
$10.92
Value
—
PnL
-$10.92
Record
51%
983-938 (1921)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$13.04
Value
$26
PnL
+$12.96
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.56
Record
63%
4066-2434 (6500)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.3
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
Invested
$9.87
Value
—
PnL
-$9.87
Record
50%
823-817 (1640)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$15.72
PnL
+$7.02
Record
38%
659-1077 (1736)
Invested
$13.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
2442-2474 (4916)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.78
hoodquant
Up — $275.05
uninformedfloww
Up — $258.01
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
bosona
Up — $150
ply-pm2
Up — $128.47
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $70
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $66.31
Hcrystallash
Up — $108